Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.73 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.73Odds
2
Value bet: Piratas to win @ 1.91 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPiratas to win ✗58% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.11
Tlaxcala vs Piratas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Piratas travel to face Tlaxcala on Saturday 10 October in the Liga De Expansión MX, with Estadio Tlahuicole the venue – the ball rolls at 23:00 WAT. In the table, Tlaxcala are 8th, upper half, on 22 points after 15 matches; Piratas are 4th (among the top four) with 25. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Tlaxcala, last 5: DWLWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Monarcas, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Piratas, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Alebrijes de Oaxaca, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tlaxcala 1.1 xG, Piratas 2.0 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 60% for three or more goals, 62% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tlaxcala 22%, draw 20%, Piratas 58%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Piratas to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (62%, odds 1.73 – longer than our fair 1.62, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tlaxcala 1–1 Piratas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tlaxcala22%fair 4.61 · @3.40
Draw20%fair 4.90 · @3.30
Piratas58%fair 1.73 · @1.91
3.09Expected goals
1.12Tlaxcala xG
1.97Piratas xG
62%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–210%
0–19%
0–29%
1–37%
0–36%
From our goals model: Tlaxcala 1.1 – 2.0 Piratas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Piratas to win✗
58%
1.73
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.26
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.73 ▲
Draw no bet
Piratas (draw no bet)✗
73%
1.38
–
Asian handicap
Tlaxcala +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
First team to score
Piratas to score first
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Piratas ahead at half-time✓
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Piratas / FT Piratas✗
36%
2.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.11
–
Recent results
Tlaxcala – last 6
DWLWDW
4 Oct
@ Monarcas
1–1
D
26 Sep
vs Cancún
4–1
W
21 Sep
@ Tapatío
0–4
L
12 Sep
vs CDS Tampico Madero
3–1
W
5 Sep
@ Durango
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs Venados FC
3–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Piratas – last 6
WLWDWD
4 Oct
vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
4–0
W
25 Sep
@ Mineros de Zacatecas
0–3
L
19 Sep
vs Venados FC
2–1
W
11 Sep
@ Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Correcaminos Uat
4–1
W
30 Aug
@ Leones Negros UDG
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tlaxcala and Piratas.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Tlaxcala vs Piratas?
On our numbers Tlaxcala have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Piratas 58%.
How many goals will there be in Tlaxcala vs Piratas?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tlaxcala vs Piratas?
Our predicted score is Tlaxcala 1–1 Piratas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Tlaxcala vs Piratas?
Tlaxcala vs Piratas (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Tlahuicole.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
