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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

BG Pathum United v Aston Villa: numbers & prediction

Friendlies Clubs · World

BG Pathum United

WLWDD
1–3
FT

Aston Villa

LLWWW
BG Pathum United 17%Draw 20%Aston Villa 63% Expected goals 1.31 – 2.12
66%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.44Odds

Picks by market

ResultAston Villa to win ✓63% · @1.22
Double chanceAston Villa or draw ✓83% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.44
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓67% · fair 1.50
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.49

BG Pathum United vs Aston Villa: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Aston Villa travel to face BG Pathum United on Tuesday 4 August in the Friendlies Clubs – the ball rolls at 14:00 WAT.

Current form

BG Pathum United, last 5: WLWDD Their latest outing: 5–0 win over Roi Et, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Aston Villa, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to Real Sociedad, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 5. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give BG Pathum United 1.3 xG, Aston Villa 2.1 xG – a total near 3.4. That is an open game on paper: 67% for three or more goals, 66% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – BG Pathum United 17%, draw 20%, Aston Villa 63%.
  • GG/NG: GG (66%) at 1.44.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (66%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: BG Pathum United 1–2 Aston Villa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

BG Pathum United17%fair 5.86 · @9.00
Draw20%fair 4.96 · @5.80
Aston Villa63%fair 1.59 · @1.22
3.43Expected goals
1.31BG Pathum United xG
2.12Aston Villa xG
66%Both score
67%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–210%
1–19%
0–27%
0–17%
1–37%
2–26%

From our goals model: BG Pathum United 1.3 – 2.1 Aston Villa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

BG Pathum UnitedAston Villa
Attack vs Friendlies Clubs average+13%+29%
Goals conceded vs average-3%-5%
Our expected goals here1.321.56

Our own ratings from every Friendlies Clubs result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAston Villa to win ✓63%1.591.22
Double chanceAston Villa or draw ✓83%1.211.06
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓66%1.521.44
Draw no betAston Villa (draw no bet) ✓79%1.27–
Asian handicapBG Pathum United +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✗66%1.51–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓86%1.17–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓67%1.50–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗55%1.81–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓74%1.35–
First team to scoreAston Villa to score first ✓60%1.67–
Half-time resultAston Villa ahead at half-time ✓42%2.35–
Half-time / full-timeHT Aston Villa / FT Aston Villa ✓36%2.81–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10%10.49–

Recent results

BG Pathum United – last 6

WLWDDW
12 Jul@ Roi Et5–0W
24 Mayvs Port FC0–1L
10 Mayvs Prachuap3–0W
1 May@ Muangthong United1–1D
19 Apr@ Port FC0–0D
8 Apr@ Buriram United1–0W
1.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Aston Villa – last 6

LLWWWD
28 Julvs Real Sociedad2–4L
25 Jul@ FC Porto1–2L
21 Jul@ Walsall5–0W
24 May@ Manchester City2–1W
20 May@ SC Freiburg3–0W
10 May@ Burnley2–2D
2.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between BG Pathum United and Aston Villa.

BG Pathum United vs Aston Villa head-to-head page →

More Friendlies Clubs predictions

League hub
FT Jeju United FC1 Bayern München2 17%14.50X15%7.75278%1.15 0.9–3.1xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 78%@1.20 ✓
FT Bournemouth10 Genoa1 169%1.51X18%4.40213%5.50 3.0–1.2xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 71%@1.44 ✓
FT Strasbourg2 SV Elversberg5 141%1.73X18%3.80241%3.70 1.8–2.5xG GGBoth teams to score 69%@1.60 ✓
FT Eldense1 Villarreal II3 137%2.20X24%3.30239%2.80 1.4–1.7xG GGBoth teams to score 59%@1.73 ✓
FT Huesca0 UD Logroñés1 150%1.73X21%4.00228%3.50 1.3–1.0xG GGBoth teams to score 59%@1.62 ✗
FT Leganes2 Al-Rayyan SC1 147%1.62X24%3.95229%4.33 1.3–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.20 ✓
FT Al-Nassr0 Almeria2 137%2.75X24%3.50239%2.15 1.4–1.4xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 53%@1.80 ✗
FT Tenerife3 Tamaraceite2 166%1.33X19%4.00214%7.50 2.6–1.1xG 1Tenerife to win 66%@1.33 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for BG Pathum United vs Aston Villa?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win BG Pathum United vs Aston Villa?

On our numbers BG Pathum United have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Aston Villa 63%.

How many goals will there be in BG Pathum United vs Aston Villa?

We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for BG Pathum United vs Aston Villa?

Our predicted score is BG Pathum United 1–2 Aston Villa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.

When is BG Pathum United vs Aston Villa?

BG Pathum United vs Aston Villa (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Tuesday 4 August 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.