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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Bournemouth v Genoa: numbers & prediction

Friendlies Clubs · World

Bournemouth

WWDDW
10–1
FT

Genoa

WDWLL
Bournemouth 69%Draw 18%Genoa 13% Expected goals 2.98 – 1.15
71%
Betarazi pick

Over 2.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.42 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.44Odds
O3.5

Value bet: Over 3.5 goals @ 2.18 – our chance 51% vs 46% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultBournemouth to win ✓69% · @1.51
Double chanceBournemouth or draw ✓87% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.56
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓71% · @1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.17

Bournemouth vs Genoa: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Bournemouth welcome Genoa for a Friendlies Clubs fixture on Tuesday 4 August (13:00 WAT).

Current form

Bournemouth, last 5: WWDDW Their latest outing: 5–2 win over FC Augsburg, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.7 a game lately.

Genoa, last 5: WDWLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Leicester, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Bournemouth, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Genoa.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Bournemouth 3.0 xG, Genoa 1.2 xG – a total near 4.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 71% and GG at 65%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Bournemouth 69%, draw 18%, Genoa 13%.
  • GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.56.
  • Price worth noting: Over 3.5 goals @2.18 – the bookmaker implies 46%, our ratings say 51%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (71%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bournemouth 2–1 Genoa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Bournemouth69%fair 1.44 · @1.51
Draw18%fair 5.66 · @4.40
Genoa13%fair 7.80 · @5.50
4.13Expected goals
2.98Bournemouth xG
1.15Genoa xG
65%Both score
71%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–18%
3–18%
2–07%
3–07%
4–16%
1–16%

From our goals model: Bournemouth 3.0 – 1.2 Genoa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

BournemouthGenoa
Attack vs Friendlies Clubs average+75%-16%
Goals conceded vs average-13%+23%
Our expected goals here3.711.19

Our own ratings from every Friendlies Clubs result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultBournemouth to win ✓69%1.441.51
Double chanceBournemouth or draw ✓87%1.151.12
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓65%1.551.56
Draw no betBournemouth (draw no bet) ✓84%1.18–
Asian handicapBournemouth -1 (Asian handicap) ✓68%1.47–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓87%1.151.11
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓71%1.421.44
Over/under 3.5 goalsOver 3.5 goals ✓51%1.952.18 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗67%1.491.23
First team to scoreBournemouth to score first71%1.41–
Half-time resultBournemouth ahead at half-time57%1.77–
Half-time / full-timeHT Bournemouth / FT Bournemouth52%1.93–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%12.17–

Recent results

Bournemouth – last 6

WWDDWD
30 Jul@ FC Augsburg5–2W
24 Julvs FC St. Pauli4–1W
24 May@ Nottingham Forest1–1D
19 Mayvs Manchester City1–1D
3 Mayvs Crystal Palace3–0W
22 Aprvs Leeds2–2D
2.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Genoa – last 6

WDWLLD
1 Aug@ Leicester1–0W
25 Julvs Vicenza Virtus2–2D
19 Julvs Trento2–1W
24 May@ Lecce0–1L
17 Mayvs AC Milan1–2L
10 May@ Fiorentina0–0D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Bournemouth and Genoa.

Bournemouth vs Genoa head-to-head page →

More Friendlies Clubs predictions

League hub
FT Jeju United FC1 Bayern München2 17%14.50X15%7.75278%1.15 0.9–3.1xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 78%@1.20 ✓
FT BG Pathum United1 Aston Villa3 117%9.00X20%5.80263%1.22 1.3–2.1xG GGBoth teams to score 66%@1.44 ✓
FT Strasbourg2 SV Elversberg5 141%1.73X18%3.80241%3.70 1.8–2.5xG GGBoth teams to score 69%@1.60 ✓
FT Eldense1 Villarreal II3 137%2.20X24%3.30239%2.80 1.4–1.7xG GGBoth teams to score 59%@1.73 ✓
FT Huesca0 UD Logroñés1 150%1.73X21%4.00228%3.50 1.3–1.0xG GGBoth teams to score 59%@1.62 ✗
FT Leganes2 Al-Rayyan SC1 147%1.62X24%3.95229%4.33 1.3–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.20 ✓
FT Al-Nassr0 Almeria2 137%2.75X24%3.50239%2.15 1.4–1.4xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 53%@1.80 ✗
FT Tenerife3 Tamaraceite2 166%1.33X19%4.00214%7.50 2.6–1.1xG 1Tenerife to win 66%@1.33 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bournemouth vs Genoa?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win Bournemouth vs Genoa?

On our numbers Bournemouth have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Genoa 13%.

How many goals will there be in Bournemouth vs Genoa?

We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Genoa?

Our predicted score is Bournemouth 2–1 Genoa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.

When is Bournemouth vs Genoa?

Bournemouth vs Genoa (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Tuesday 4 August 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.