Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: MSV Duisburg to win @ 2.20 – our chance 48% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMSV Duisburg to win ✓48% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.15
Verl vs MSV Duisburg: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
MSV Duisburg travel to face Verl on Saturday 15 August in the 3. Liga, with Sportclub Arena the venue – the ball rolls at 15:30 WAT. In the table, Verl are 17th, lower half, on 12 points after 13 matches; MSV Duisburg are 2nd (among the top four) with 29. There are 17 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Verl, last 5: LLWLW Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Alemannia Aachen, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
MSV Duisburg, last 5: WDDLW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over SV Meppen, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours MSV Duisburg, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for Verl.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Verl 1.5 xG, MSV Duisburg 2.0 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 62% for three or more goals, 65% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Verl 31%, draw 21%, MSV Duisburg 48%.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.50.
Price worth noting: MSV Duisburg to win @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 48%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (82%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Verl 1–1 MSV Duisburg. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Verl31%fair 3.25 · @2.95
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @3.60
MSV Duisburg48%fair 2.07 · @2.20
3.49Expected goals
1.53Verl xG
1.96MSV Duisburg xG
65%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–19%
1–29%
2–17%
2–27%
0–16%
0–26%
From our goals model: Verl 1.5 – 2.0 MSV Duisburg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
MSV Duisburg to win✓
48%
2.07
2.20 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.53
1.50
Draw no bet
MSV Duisburg (draw no bet)✓
61%
1.64
–
Asian handicap
Verl +1 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.48
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.18
First team to score
MSV Duisburg to score first✗
54%
1.84
–
Half-time result
MSV Duisburg ahead at half-time✗
37%
2.67
–
Half-time / full-time
HT MSV Duisburg / FT MSV Duisburg✗
30%
3.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.15
–
Recent results
Verl – last 6
LLWLWL
9 Aug
@ Alemannia Aachen
1–4
L
1 Aug
@ RB Leipzig
0–4
L
26 Jul
vs Bremer SV
6–1
W
18 Jul
@ VfL Wolfsburg
0–3
L
15 Jul
@ Paderborn II
1–0
W
9 May
@ Rot-Weiß Essen
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
MSV Duisburg – last 6
WDDLWW
8 Aug
vs SV Meppen
3–0
W
1 Aug
@ Sparta Rotterdam
0–0
D
25 Jul
@ Arminia Bielefeld
1–1
D
22 Jul
vs Beerschot VA
2–4
L
18 Jul
@ Bonner SC
4–1
W
12 Jul
@ FC OSS
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Verl and MSV Duisburg.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Verl vs MSV Duisburg?
On our numbers Verl have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 21% and MSV Duisburg 48%.
How many goals will there be in Verl vs MSV Duisburg?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Verl vs MSV Duisburg?
Our predicted score is Verl 1–1 MSV Duisburg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Verl vs MSV Duisburg?
Verl vs MSV Duisburg (3. Liga) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Sportclub Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
