Value bet: Barrow to win @ 2.88 – our chance 39% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBarrow to win ✗39% · @2.88
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.20
Hartlepool vs Barrow: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 8 August the National League brings Hartlepool against Barrow at Victoria Park. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Hartlepool are 21st, lower half, on 15 points after 16 matches; Barrow are 9th (upper half) with 25.
Current form
Hartlepool, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Fleetwood Town, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Barrow, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Morecambe, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Hartlepool 1.3 xG, Barrow 1.5 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Hartlepool 37%, draw 24%, Barrow 39%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: Barrow to win @2.88 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Hartlepool 1–1 Barrow. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Hartlepool37%fair 2.70 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.40
Barrow39%fair 2.58 · @2.88
2.90Expected goals
1.35Hartlepool xG
1.55Barrow xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–29%
0–19%
2–18%
1–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Hartlepool 1.3 – 1.5 Barrow expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Hartlepool
Barrow
Attack vs National League average
-14%
+10%
Goals conceded vs average
+10%
-16%
Our expected goals here
1.26
1.72
Our own ratings from every National League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Barrow to win✗
39%
2.58
2.88 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.60
Draw no bet
Barrow (draw no bet)✗
51%
1.96
–
Asian handicap
Hartlepool +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
First team to score
Barrow to score first✗
51%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Barrow / FT Barrow✗
25%
3.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.20
–
Recent results
Hartlepool – last 6
WLWWWW
1 Aug
vs Fleetwood Town
1–0
W
25 Jul
vs Grimsby
0–3
L
21 Jul
@ Hebburn Town
3–2
W
18 Jul
@ Spennymoor Town
2–1
W
14 Jul
@ Redcar Athletic
4–2
W
21 Apr
vs Southend
4–3
W
2.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Barrow – last 6
WWDWWW
1 Aug
@ Morecambe
1–0
W
25 Jul
vs Blackpool
2–0
W
21 Jul
@ Radcliffe
0–0
D
18 Jul
vs Mansfield Town
4–3
W
11 Jul
vs Workington
2–0
W
14 Apr
vs Oldham
3–2
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Hartlepool and Barrow.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Hartlepool vs Barrow?
On our numbers Hartlepool have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Barrow 39%.
How many goals will there be in Hartlepool vs Barrow?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hartlepool vs Barrow?
Our predicted score is Hartlepool 1–1 Barrow, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Hartlepool vs Barrow?
Hartlepool vs Barrow (National League) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Victoria Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
