Merthyr Town 41%Draw 22%Morecambe 37%Expected goals 1.19 – 1.11
58%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.55Odds
Picks by market
ResultMerthyr Town to win ✗41% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.55
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.68
Merthyr Town vs Morecambe: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 24 October the National League North brings Merthyr Town against Morecambe. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Merthyr Town are 17th, lower half, on 19 points after 16 matches; Morecambe are 9th (upper half) with 24.
Current form
Merthyr Town, last 5: DDLLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with King's Lynn Town, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Morecambe, last 5: LLWDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to AFC Rushden & Diamonds, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Morecambe, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.7 for Merthyr Town.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Merthyr Town 1.2 xG, Morecambe 1.1 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Merthyr Town 41%, draw 22%, Morecambe 37%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.55.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (58%, odds 1.55). Most likely score in line with that pick: Merthyr Town 1–1 Morecambe. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Merthyr Town41%fair 2.43 · @2.25
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @3.30
Morecambe37%fair 2.70 · @2.80
2.30Expected goals
1.19Merthyr Town xG
1.11Morecambe xG
58%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Merthyr Town 1.2 – 1.1 Morecambe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Merthyr Town to win✗
41%
2.43
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.71
1.55
Draw no bet
Merthyr Town (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.90
–
Asian handicap
Morecambe +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.68
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Merthyr Town to score first✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Merthyr Town / FT Merthyr Town✗
22%
4.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.68
–
Recent results
Merthyr Town – last 6
DDLLDD
17 Oct
vs King's Lynn Town
1–1
D
10 Oct
@ Darlington 1883
1–1
D
26 Sep
vs Marine
1–2
L
22 Sep
@ Truro City
0–2
L
19 Sep
vs Truro City
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Scarborough Athletic
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Morecambe – last 6
LLWDWW
17 Oct
@ AFC Rushden & Diamonds
1–2
L
10 Oct
@ Worksop Town
1–2
L
3 Oct
vs Darlington 1883
3–0
W
26 Sep
@ Oxford City
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Southport
2–0
W
12 Sep
vs Brackley Town
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Merthyr Town and Morecambe.
What is the prediction for Merthyr Town vs Morecambe?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Morecambe?
On our numbers Merthyr Town have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Morecambe 37%.
How many goals will there be in Merthyr Town vs Morecambe?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Merthyr Town vs Morecambe?
Our predicted score is Merthyr Town 1–1 Morecambe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Merthyr Town vs Morecambe?
Merthyr Town vs Morecambe (National League North) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
