Alfreton Town 27%Draw 14%Bury 59%Expected goals 1.03 – 1.75
59%
Betarazi pick
Bury to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.95 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.95Odds
Picks by market
ResultBury to win ✓59% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · fair 1.97
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.22
Alfreton Town vs Bury: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 10 October the Non League Premier Northern brings Alfreton Town against Bury. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Alfreton Town are 11th, upper half, on 23 points after 18 matches; Bury are 7th (upper half) with 29.
Current form
Alfreton Town, last 5: WLWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over United of Manchester, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Bury, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Stockton Town, away. The attack is flying at 3.7 goals per game.
Momentum favours Bury, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.5 for Alfreton Town.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alfreton Town 1.0 xG, Bury 1.8 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alfreton Town 27%, draw 14%, Bury 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Bury to win (59%, odds 1.95 – longer than our fair 1.69, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alfreton Town 0–1 Bury. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alfreton Town27%fair 3.68 · @3.00
Draw14%fair 7.33 · @3.70
Bury59%fair 1.69 · @1.95
2.79Expected goals
1.03Alfreton Town xG
1.75Bury xG
51%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
0–111%
1–210%
0–29%
1–06%
0–06%
From our goals model: Alfreton Town 1.0 – 1.8 Bury expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bury to win✓
59%
1.69
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
86%
1.16
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
–
Draw no bet
Bury (draw no bet)✓
69%
1.46
–
Asian handicap
Alfreton Town +1 (Asian handicap)
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
85%
1.18
–
First team to score
Bury to score first
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bury / FT Bury✓
33%
2.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.22
–
Recent results
Alfreton Town – last 6
WLWWLL
6 Oct
vs United of Manchester
1–0
W
3 Oct
@ Redcar Athletic
1–3
L
29 Sep
vs Guiseley AFC
1–0
W
26 Sep
vs Shifnal Town FC
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Bamber Bridge
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Stratford Town
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Bury – last 6
LWDWWW
6 Oct
@ Stockton Town
0–1
L
3 Oct
vs Bromsgrove Sporting
2–1
W
26 Sep
vs Gainsborough Trinity
3–3
D
19 Sep
vs Workington
5–1
W
12 Sep
vs AFC Emley
4–0
W
5 Sep
vs Wythenshawe Amateurs
8–0
W
3.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alfreton Town and Bury.
Our pick is Bury to win with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Alfreton Town vs Bury?
On our numbers Alfreton Town have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Bury 59%.
How many goals will there be in Alfreton Town vs Bury?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alfreton Town vs Bury?
Our predicted score is Alfreton Town 0–1 Bury, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Alfreton Town vs Bury?
Alfreton Town vs Bury (Non League Premier Northern) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
