Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Alvechurch to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAlvechurch to win ✗61% · @1.85
Double chanceAlvechurch or draw ✓86% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.24
Alvechurch vs Stourbridge: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alvechurch welcome Stourbridge for a Non League Premier Southern Central fixture on Tuesday 29 September (19:45 WAT). In the table, Alvechurch are 6th, upper half, on 29 points after 15 matches; Stourbridge are 11th (upper half) with 22.
Current form
Alvechurch, last 5: LDWWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Bourne Town, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Stourbridge, last 5: WLDLD Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Rushall Olympic, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Alvechurch, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Stourbridge.
Head to head
When they last met (6 Apr 2026) it ended Stourbridge 1–1 Alvechurch. The last 2 head-to-heads: Alvechurch 0 wins, Stourbridge 1, draws 1. Those games averaged 2.5 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alvechurch 1.9 xG, Stourbridge 0.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alvechurch 61%, draw 25%, Stourbridge 14%.
Lower-risk option: Alvechurch or draw (86%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Alvechurch to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Alvechurch or draw (86%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alvechurch 1–0 Stourbridge. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alvechurch61%fair 1.64 · @1.85
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.10
Stourbridge14%fair 7.30 · @3.60
2.73Expected goals
1.90Alvechurch xG
0.83Stourbridge xG
56%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Alvechurch 1.9 – 0.8 Stourbridge expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Alvechurch vs Stourbridge?
Our pick is Alvechurch or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Alvechurch vs Stourbridge?
On our numbers Alvechurch have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Stourbridge 14%.
How many goals will there be in Alvechurch vs Stourbridge?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alvechurch vs Stourbridge?
Our predicted score is Alvechurch 1–0 Stourbridge, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Alvechurch vs Stourbridge?
Alvechurch vs Stourbridge (Non League Premier Southern Central) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
