Value bet: Draw @ 3.20 – our chance 38% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✗38% · @3.20
Double chancePacos Ferreira or draw ✗70% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.55
AD Marco 09 vs Pacos Ferreira: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 9 August the Liga 3 brings AD Marco 09 against Pacos Ferreira at Municipal de Marco de Canaveses. Kick-off: 11:00 WAT. In the table, AD Marco 09 are 3rd, among the top four, on 14 points after 9 matches; Pacos Ferreira are 8th (upper half) with 11. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
AD Marco 09, last 5: DLDDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Cinfães, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Pacos Ferreira, last 5: DLWLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Felgueiras 1932, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AD Marco 09 1.2 xG, Pacos Ferreira 1.1 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AD Marco 09 30%, draw 38%, Pacos Ferreira 32%.
Lower-risk option: Pacos Ferreira or draw (70%) at 1.33.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: AD Marco 09 1–1 Pacos Ferreira. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AD Marco 0930%fair 3.29 · @3.10
Draw38%fair 2.67 · @3.20
Pacos Ferreira32%fair 3.12 · @2.15
2.29Expected goals
1.20AD Marco 09 xG
1.09Pacos Ferreira xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: AD Marco 09 1.2 – 1.1 Pacos Ferreira expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
38%
2.67
3.20 ▲
Double chance
Pacos Ferreira or draw✗
70%
1.44
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.80
Draw no bet
Pacos Ferreira (draw no bet)✗
51%
1.95
–
Asian handicap
Pacos Ferreira +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
AD Marco 09 to score first✓
47%
2.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AD Marco 09 / FT AD Marco 09✓
22%
4.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.55
–
Recent results
AD Marco 09 – last 6
DLDDWL
1 Aug
@ Cinfães
1–1
D
15 Jul
@ União de Leiria
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ Fafe
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Sanjoanense
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs São João Ver
2–1
W
22 Feb
@ SC Braga B
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Pacos Ferreira – last 6
DLWLLW
29 Jul
vs Felgueiras 1932
0–0
D
25 Jul
vs AVS
0–2
L
17 May
vs Penafiel
2–1
W
3 May
vs Feirense
1–2
L
26 Apr
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
0–2
L
18 Apr
vs Chaves
4–3
W
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AD Marco 09 and Pacos Ferreira.
What is the prediction for AD Marco 09 vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win AD Marco 09 vs Pacos Ferreira?
On our numbers AD Marco 09 have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 38% and Pacos Ferreira 32%.
How many goals will there be in AD Marco 09 vs Pacos Ferreira?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AD Marco 09 vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our predicted score is AD Marco 09 1–1 Pacos Ferreira, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is AD Marco 09 vs Pacos Ferreira?
AD Marco 09 vs Pacos Ferreira (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Municipal de Marco de Canaveses.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
