Value bet: Fafe to win @ 3.20 – our chance 39% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFafe to win ✗39% · @3.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.40
Paredes vs Fafe: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:30 WAT, Sunday 13 September: Paredes v Fafe in the Liga 3, played at Municipal das Laranjeiras. In the table, Paredes are 1st, leading the league, on 22 points after 9 matches; Fafe are 4th (among the top four) with 13.
Current form
Paredes, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Varzim, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately.
Fafe, last 5: WDDWD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Leça, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Paredes, collecting 2.5 points per game to 2.0 for Fafe.
Head to head
When they last met (22 Mar 2026) it ended Fafe 1–0 Paredes. The last 2 head-to-heads: Paredes 0 wins, Fafe 1, draws 1. Those games averaged 0.5 goals.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Paredes 1.1 xG, Fafe 1.1 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 49%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Paredes 38%, draw 23%, Fafe 39%.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Fafe to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (51%, odds 1.85). Most likely score in line with that pick: Paredes 0–1 Fafe. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Paredes38%fair 2.63 · @2.15
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.00
Fafe39%fair 2.60 · @3.20
2.25Expected goals
1.12Paredes xG
1.13Fafe xG
49%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–012%
0–011%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Paredes 1.1 – 1.1 Fafe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Paredes vs Fafe?
On our numbers Paredes have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Fafe 39%.
How many goals will there be in Paredes vs Fafe?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paredes vs Fafe?
Our predicted score is Paredes 0–1 Fafe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Paredes vs Fafe?
Paredes vs Fafe (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Municipal das Laranjeiras.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
