Value bet: Marcílio Dias to win @ 2.50 – our chance 43% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMarcílio Dias to win ✗43% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · fair 1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.90
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.28
Blumenau vs Marcílio Dias: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Marcílio Dias travel to face Blumenau on Saturday 26 September in the Copa Santa Catarina – the ball rolls at 21:00 WAT.
Current form
Blumenau, last 5: LDLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Metropolitano, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Marcílio Dias, last 5: WLWWL Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Hercílio Luz, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Marcílio Dias, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.3 for Blumenau.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Blumenau 1.4 xG, Marcílio Dias 1.6 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 48% for three or more goals, 53% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Blumenau 35%, draw 23%, Marcílio Dias 43%.
Price worth noting: Marcílio Dias to win @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (52%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Blumenau 1–1 Marcílio Dias. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Blumenau35%fair 2.87 · @2.50
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.20
Marcílio Dias43%fair 2.35 · @2.50
2.94Expected goals
1.38Blumenau xG
1.56Marcílio Dias xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–07%
0–26%
From our goals model: Blumenau 1.4 – 1.6 Marcílio Dias expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marcílio Dias to win✗
43%
2.35
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
–
Draw no bet
Marcílio Dias (draw no bet)
55%
1.82
–
Asian handicap
Blumenau +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
First team to score
Marcílio Dias to score first
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marcílio Dias / FT Marcílio Dias✗
25%
4.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.28
–
Recent results
Blumenau – last 6
LDLLLD
19 Sep
vs Metropolitano
0–1
L
15 Sep
@ Barra
2–2
D
5 Sep
@ Joinville
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Santa Catarina
0–1
L
22 Jul
vs Nação
0–2
L
19 Jul
@ Guarani de Palhoça
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Marcílio Dias – last 6
WLWWLD
19 Sep
vs Hercílio Luz
4–2
W
13 Sep
@ Santa Catarina
1–2
L
7 Sep
@ Metropolitano
5–2
W
30 Aug
vs Joinville
4–2
W
11 Jul
@ Portuguesa
0–2
L
4 Jul
vs Portuguesa
1–1
D
2.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Blumenau and Marcílio Dias.
What is the prediction for Blumenau vs Marcílio Dias?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Blumenau vs Marcílio Dias?
On our numbers Blumenau have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Marcílio Dias 43%.
How many goals will there be in Blumenau vs Marcílio Dias?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Blumenau vs Marcílio Dias?
Our predicted score is Blumenau 1–1 Marcílio Dias, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Blumenau vs Marcílio Dias?
Blumenau vs Marcílio Dias (Copa Santa Catarina) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Joinville2
Barra1
Hercílio Luz2
Nação1