Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.73 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.73Odds
Picks by market
ResultHercílio Luz to win ✓65% · @1.28
Double chanceEither team to win ✓83% · fair 1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.81
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓63% · @1.73
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.68
Hercílio Luz vs Nação: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Hercílio Luz welcome Nação for a Copa Santa Catarina fixture on Saturday 26 September (22:00 WAT).
Current form
Hercílio Luz, last 5: LWWWD Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to Marcílio Dias, away. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
Nação, last 5: DLLDL Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Barra, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Hercílio Luz, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.8 for Nação.
Head to head
When they last met (25 Jul 2026) it ended Nação 1–2 Hercílio Luz. The last 2 head-to-heads: Hercílio Luz 2 wins, Nação 0, draws 0. Those games averaged 3.0 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Hercílio Luz 2.4 xG, Nação 1.2 xG – a total near 3.6. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 63% and GG at 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Hercílio Luz 65%, draw 17%, Nação 18%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (63%, odds 1.73 – longer than our fair 1.60, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Hercílio Luz 2–1 Nação. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Hercílio Luz65%fair 1.54 · @1.28
Draw17%fair 5.95 · @5.00
Nação18%fair 5.44 · @7.00
3.65Expected goals
2.43Hercílio Luz xG
1.22Nação xG
55%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
1–18%
2–08%
3–18%
1–06%
3–06%
From our goals model: Hercílio Luz 2.4 – 1.2 Nação expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Hercílio Luz vs Nação?
On our numbers Hercílio Luz have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Nação 18%.
How many goals will there be in Hercílio Luz vs Nação?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hercílio Luz vs Nação?
Our predicted score is Hercílio Luz 2–1 Nação, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Hercílio Luz vs Nação?
Hercílio Luz vs Nação (Copa Santa Catarina) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Joinville2
Barra1
Blumenau1
Marcílio Dias1