Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
Picks by market
ResultModena to win ✓64% · @1.67
Double chanceModena or draw ✓89% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗57% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21% · fair 4.81
Modena vs Empoli: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 20 September the Serie B brings Modena against Empoli at Alberto Braglia. Kick-off: 18:30 WAT. In the table, Modena are 2nd, among the top four, on 23 points after 11 matches; Empoli are 19th (in the drop zone) with 9. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Modena, last 5: DLWWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Sudtirol, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Empoli, last 5: LWLWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Arezzo, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Modena 1.5 xG, Empoli 0.5 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Modena 64%, draw 24%, Empoli 11%.
Lower-risk option: Modena or draw (89%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: NG (57%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Modena to win (64%, odds 1.67 – longer than our fair 1.55, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Modena 1–0 Empoli. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Modena64%fair 1.55 · @1.67
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.60
Empoli11%fair 8.78 · @4.80
2.00Expected goals
1.54Modena xG
0.46Empoli xG
43%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–021%
2–016%
0–014%
1–110%
3–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Modena 1.5 – 0.5 Empoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Modena to win✓
64%
1.55
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Modena or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.85 ▲
Draw no bet
Modena (draw no bet)✓
85%
1.18
–
Asian handicap
Modena -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.06
–
First team to score
Modena to score first✗
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Modena / FT Modena✗
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
21%
4.81
–
Recent results
Modena – last 6
DLWWLD
12 Sep
@ Sudtirol
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Avellino
0–1
L
28 Aug
@ Cremonese
3–0
W
22 Aug
@ Benevento
2–1
W
15 Aug
@ Venezia
2–3
L
8 Aug
vs Vis Pesaro
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Empoli – last 6
LWLWDD
11 Sep
vs Arezzo
0–1
L
5 Sep
@ Carrarese
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Mantova
1–3
L
22 Aug
vs Cremonese
1–0
W
17 Aug
@ Pisa
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Livorno
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Modena and Empoli.
Our pick is Modena to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Modena vs Empoli?
On our numbers Modena have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Empoli 11%.
How many goals will there be in Modena vs Empoli?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Modena vs Empoli?
Our predicted score is Modena 1–0 Empoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Modena vs Empoli?
Modena vs Empoli (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Alberto Braglia.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
