Palermo v Padova Prediction & Expected Goals (19 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultPalermo to win ✓67% · @1.50

Double chancePalermo or draw ✓86% · @1.14

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.75

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.90

Palermo vs Padova: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Palermo welcome Padova to Renzo Barbera for a Serie B fixture on Saturday 19 September (14:00 WAT). In the table, Palermo are 1st, leading the league, on 27 points after 11 matches; Padova are 10th (upper half) with 15. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Palermo, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Avellino, away. In their own stadium the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately.

Padova, last 5: WLDWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Ascoli, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Palermo, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.3 for Padova.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Palermo 1.8 xG, Padova 0.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 55%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Palermo 67%, draw 19%, Padova 14%.
Lower-risk option: Palermo or draw (86%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.75.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Palermo to win (67%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Palermo 1–0 Padova. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Palermo67%fair 1.49 · @1.50

Draw19%fair 5.25 · @4.00

Padova14%fair 7.12 · @5.50

2.50Expected goals

1.84Palermo xG

0.66Padova xG

55%Both score

46%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–015%

2–014%

1–110%

2–19%

3–09%

0–08%

From our goals model: Palermo 1.8 – 0.7 Padova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Palermo to win ✓	67%	1.49	1.50
Double chance	Palermo or draw ✓	86%	1.16	1.14
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	55%	1.83	1.75
Draw no bet	Palermo (draw no bet) ✓	83%	1.21	–
Asian handicap	Palermo -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	66%	1.52	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	71%	1.40	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	54%	1.84	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	76%	1.32	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	89%	1.12	–
First team to score	Palermo to score first	68%	1.48	–
Half-time result	Palermo ahead at half-time ✗	46%	2.18	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Palermo / FT Palermo ✗	42%	2.40	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✓	9%	10.90	–

Palermo – last 6

DWWWWW

13 Sep	@ Avellino	1–1	D
7 Sep	vs Sampdoria	3–1	W
3 Sep	vs Mantova	5–2	W
30 Aug	@ Arezzo	3–2	W
23 Aug	vs Juve Stabia	1–0	W
17 Aug	vs Lecce	2–0	W

2.5Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

67%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Padova – last 6

WLDWLD

12 Sep	vs Ascoli	1–0	W
6 Sep	@ Cremonese	1–3	L
29 Aug	vs Hellas Verona	1–1	D
23 Aug	@ Pisa	1–0	W
15 Aug	@ Udinese	0–1	L
7 Aug	@ Monza	3–3	D

1.2Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

50%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	+12	27
2	Modena	11	7	2	2	+10	23
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	+10	20
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	+4	19
5	Avellino	11	4	4	3	+5	16
6	Benevento	11	4	4	3	+4	16
7	Hellas Verona	11	4	4	3	+6	16
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	+3	16
9	Cremonese	11	4	3	4	+2	15
10	Padova	11	4	3	4	-1	15
11	Cesena	11	3	6	2	-2	15
12	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	+1	15
13	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	+1	12
14	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	-11	11
15	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	-7	11
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	-3	10
17	Carrarese	11	3	1	7	-5	10
18	Vicenza Virtus	11	2	3	6	-10	9
19	Empoli	11	2	3	6	-7	9
20	Catanzaro	11	1	3	7	-12	6

Team

Pts

+12

+10

+10

-1

-2

-11

-7

-3

-5

-10

-7

-12

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Palermo vs Padova?

Our pick is Palermo to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.

Who will win Palermo vs Padova?

On our numbers Palermo have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Padova 14%.

How many goals will there be in Palermo vs Padova?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Palermo vs Padova?

Our predicted score is Palermo 1–0 Padova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Palermo vs Padova?

Palermo vs Padova (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Renzo Barbera.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Palermo v Padova: numbers & prediction