Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Vila Meã to win @ 1.90 – our chance 59% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultVila Meã to win ✓59% · @1.90
Double chanceVila Meã or draw ✓83% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17% · fair 5.88
Ponte da Barca vs Vila Meã: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ponte da Barca welcome Vila Meã for a Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A fixture on Sunday 16 August (17:00 WAT). In the table, Ponte da Barca are 10th, lower half, on 10 points after 8 matches; Vila Meã are 11th (lower half) with 9. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Vila Meã, last 5: WLDLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Rebordosa, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ponte da Barca 0.7 xG, Vila Meã 1.5 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ponte da Barca 17%, draw 24%, Vila Meã 59%.
Lower-risk option: Vila Meã or draw (83%) at 1.17.
Price worth noting: Vila Meã to win @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (62%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ponte da Barca 0–1 Vila Meã. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ponte da Barca17%fair 5.88 · @4.10
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @2.90
Vila Meã59%fair 1.71 · @1.90
2.19Expected goals
0.67Ponte da Barca xG
1.52Vila Meã xG
44%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–117%
0–213%
1–111%
0–011%
1–29%
1–07%
From our goals model: Ponte da Barca 0.7 – 1.5 Vila Meã expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vila Meã to win✓
59%
1.71
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Vila Meã or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
–
Draw no bet
Vila Meã (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Ponte da Barca +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.60
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Vila Meã to score first
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vila Meã / FT Vila Meã✗
35%
2.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
17%
5.88
–
Recent results
Ponte da Barca
No recent results on record.
Vila Meã – last 6
WLDLDD
22 Mar
vs Rebordosa
1–0
W
15 Mar
@ União Lamas
0–1
L
8 Mar
vs Aparecida
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Alpendorada
2–3
L
22 Feb
vs Resende
0–0
D
15 Feb
@ Cinfães
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ponte da Barca and Vila Meã.
What is the prediction for Ponte da Barca vs Vila Meã?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Ponte da Barca vs Vila Meã?
On our numbers Ponte da Barca have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vila Meã 59%.
How many goals will there be in Ponte da Barca vs Vila Meã?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ponte da Barca vs Vila Meã?
Our predicted score is Ponte da Barca 0–1 Vila Meã, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Ponte da Barca vs Vila Meã?
Ponte da Barca vs Vila Meã (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
