Value bet: Draw @ 3.25 – our chance 51% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +67%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✗51% · @3.25
Double chanceVinhais or draw ✗78% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · fair 1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–0 ✗8% · fair 13.05
Vinhais vs Maria da Fonte: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:00 WAT, Sunday 16 August: Vinhais v Maria da Fonte in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A. In the table, Vinhais are 14th, in the drop zone, on 0 points after 8 matches; Maria da Fonte are 13th (in the drop zone) with 7.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vinhais 1.3 xG, Maria da Fonte 1.2 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 49%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vinhais 26%, draw 51%, Maria da Fonte 22%.
Lower-risk option: Vinhais or draw (78%) at 1.36.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Vinhais or draw (78%, odds 1.36 – longer than our fair 1.28, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vinhais 1–1 Maria da Fonte. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vinhais26%fair 3.79 · @2.30
Draw51%fair 1.94 · @3.25
Maria da Fonte22%fair 4.52 · @2.70
2.57Expected goals
1.33Vinhais xG
1.24Maria da Fonte xG
49%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Vinhais 1.3 – 1.2 Maria da Fonte expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
51%
1.94
3.25 ▲
Double chance
Vinhais or draw✗
78%
1.28
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
–
Draw no bet
Vinhais (draw no bet)✗
54%
1.84
–
Asian handicap
Maria da Fonte +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
First team to score
Vinhais to score first✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vinhais / FT Vinhais✗
22%
4.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–0✗
8%
13.05
–
Recent results
Vinhais
No recent results on record.
Maria da Fonte – last 1
L
31 Jul
@ Fafe
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vinhais and Maria da Fonte.
What is the prediction for Vinhais vs Maria da Fonte?
Our pick is Vinhais or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Vinhais vs Maria da Fonte?
On our numbers Vinhais have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 51% and Maria da Fonte 22%.
How many goals will there be in Vinhais vs Maria da Fonte?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vinhais vs Maria da Fonte?
Our predicted score is Vinhais 1–1 Maria da Fonte, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Vinhais vs Maria da Fonte?
Vinhais vs Maria da Fonte (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
