Value bet: Gwangju FC to win @ 1.80 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultGwangju FC to win ✓63% · @1.80
Double chanceGwangju FC or draw ✓86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.34
Ulsan Citizen vs Gwangju FC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ulsan Citizen welcome Gwangju FC to Ulsan Complex Stadium for a FA Cup fixture on Wednesday 19 August (11:00 WAT).
Current form
Ulsan Citizen, last 5: WLDWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Ulsan Hyundai FC, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Gwangju FC, last 5: LDLWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Pohang Steelers, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Ulsan Citizen, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.8 for Gwangju FC.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ulsan Citizen 0.8 xG, Gwangju FC 1.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ulsan Citizen 14%, draw 23%, Gwangju FC 63%.
Lower-risk option: Gwangju FC or draw (86%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Gwangju FC to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ulsan Citizen 0–2 Gwangju FC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ulsan Citizen14%fair 6.93 · @3.85
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.45
Gwangju FC63%fair 1.59 · @1.80
2.68Expected goals
0.79Ulsan Citizen xG
1.89Gwangju FC xG
55%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Ulsan Citizen 0.8 – 1.9 Gwangju FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gwangju FC to win✓
63%
1.59
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Gwangju FC or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.80
Draw no bet
Gwangju FC (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Gwangju FC -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Gwangju FC to score first✓
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Gwangju FC ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gwangju FC / FT Gwangju FC✓
40%
2.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.34
–
Recent results
Ulsan Citizen – last 6
WLDWWW
29 Jul
vs Ulsan Hyundai FC
1–0
W
26 Jul
@ Chuncheon
1–2
L
15 Jul
vs Seoul E-Land FC
2–2
D
10 Jul
vs Yeoju Sejong
1–0
W
4 Jul
vs Chuncheon
2–1
W
27 Jun
vs Mokpo City
4–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Gwangju FC – last 6
LDLWLD
15 Aug
vs Pohang Steelers
1–2
L
8 Aug
@ Bucheon FC 1995
0–0
D
2 Aug
@ Daejeon Citizen
0–2
L
29 Jul
vs Cheonan City
1–0
W
26 Jul
vs Jeju United FC
1–2
L
22 Jul
vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ulsan Citizen and Gwangju FC.
What is the prediction for Ulsan Citizen vs Gwangju FC?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Ulsan Citizen vs Gwangju FC?
On our numbers Ulsan Citizen have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Gwangju FC 63%.
How many goals will there be in Ulsan Citizen vs Gwangju FC?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ulsan Citizen vs Gwangju FC?
Our predicted score is Ulsan Citizen 0–2 Gwangju FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Ulsan Citizen vs Gwangju FC?
Ulsan Citizen vs Gwangju FC (FA Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 19 August 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Ulsan Complex Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
FA Cup · South-Korea · Ulsan Complex Stadium
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