Aston Villa W 59%Draw 24%Crystal Palace W 17%Expected goals 2.20 – 1.18
83%
Betarazi pick
Aston Villa W or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.65 – our chance 64% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAston Villa W to win ✗59% · @1.73
Double chanceAston Villa W or draw ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.65
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗66% · fair 1.52
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.28
Aston Villa W vs Crystal Palace W: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Crystal Palace W travel to face Aston Villa W on Sunday 4 October in the FA WSL, with Trevor Brown Memorial Ground the venue – the ball rolls at 14:00 WAT. In the table, Aston Villa W are 9th, lower half, on 10 points after 9 matches; Crystal Palace W are 10th (lower half) with 9. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Aston Villa W, last 5: WLWDL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Newcastle United W, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Crystal Palace W, last 5: WDWLD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Charlton Athletic W, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Crystal Palace W, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for Aston Villa W.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Aston Villa W 2.2 xG, Crystal Palace W 1.2 xG – a total near 3.4. That is an open game on paper: 66% for three or more goals, 64% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Aston Villa W 59%, draw 24%, Crystal Palace W 17%.
Lower-risk option: Aston Villa W or draw (83%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.65 – the bookmaker implies 61%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Aston Villa W or draw (83%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.21, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Aston Villa W 2–1 Crystal Palace W. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Aston Villa W59%fair 1.71 · @1.73
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.70
Crystal Palace W17%fair 5.76 · @3.75
3.38Expected goals
2.20Aston Villa W xG
1.18Crystal Palace W xG
64%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–19%
2–08%
1–08%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Aston Villa W 2.2 – 1.2 Crystal Palace W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aston Villa W to win✗
59%
1.71
1.73
Double chance
Aston Villa W or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.55
1.65 ▲
Draw no bet
Aston Villa W (draw no bet)
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Aston Villa W -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
First team to score
Aston Villa W to score first
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Aston Villa W ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aston Villa W / FT Aston Villa W✗
39%
2.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.28
–
Recent results
Aston Villa W – last 6
WLWDLD
30 Sep
vs Newcastle United W
3–1
W
27 Sep
@ Tottenham Hotspur W
0–4
L
23 Sep
@ Nottingham Forest W
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ Brighton W
1–1
D
13 Sep
vs Manchester City W
1–4
L
5 Sep
@ Chelsea W
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Crystal Palace W – last 6
WDWLDW
30 Sep
vs Charlton Athletic W
3–0
W
27 Sep
@ Birmingham City W
3–3
D
23 Sep
vs Watford W
1–0
W
20 Sep
vs Tottenham Hotspur W
0–7
L
13 Sep
@ Arsenal W
0–0
D
6 Sep
vs Everton W
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aston Villa W and Crystal Palace W.
What is the prediction for Aston Villa W vs Crystal Palace W?
Our pick is Aston Villa W or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Aston Villa W vs Crystal Palace W?
On our numbers Aston Villa W have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Crystal Palace W 17%.
How many goals will there be in Aston Villa W vs Crystal Palace W?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa W vs Crystal Palace W?
Our predicted score is Aston Villa W 2–1 Crystal Palace W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Aston Villa W vs Crystal Palace W?
Aston Villa W vs Crystal Palace W (FA WSL) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Trevor Brown Memorial Ground.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
