Alcione v Desenzano Calvina Prediction & Expected Goals (18 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultAlcione to win ✓40% · @2.38

Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.75

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.26

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.56

Alcione vs Desenzano Calvina: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Desenzano Calvina travel to face Alcione on Sunday 18 October in the Serie C Girone A, with Stadio Ernesto Breda the venue – the ball rolls at 16:30 WAT. In the table, Alcione are 8th, upper half, on 18 points after 13 matches; Desenzano Calvina are 13th (lower half) with 13.

Current form

Alcione, last 5: DDDLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Lecco, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.

Desenzano Calvina, last 5: WWDDL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Dolomiti Bellunesi, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Desenzano Calvina, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Alcione.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Alcione 1.2 xG, Desenzano Calvina 1.1 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 57%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Alcione 40%, draw 25%, Desenzano Calvina 36%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.75.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (57%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alcione 1–1 Desenzano Calvina. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Alcione40%fair 2.51 · @2.38

Draw25%fair 4.06 · @2.80

Desenzano Calvina36%fair 2.81 · @2.80

2.33Expected goals

1.21Alcione xG

1.12Desenzano Calvina xG

57%Both score

41%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

1–012%

0–111%

0–010%

2–18%

1–27%

From our goals model: Alcione 1.2 – 1.1 Desenzano Calvina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Alcione to win ✓	40%	2.51	2.38
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	75%	1.33	1.36
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	57%	1.76	1.75
Draw no bet	Alcione (draw no bet) ✓	53%	1.90	–
Asian handicap	Desenzano Calvina +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	62%	1.61	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	68%	1.48	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	59%	1.70	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	79%	1.26	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	91%	1.10	–
First team to score	Alcione to score first ✓	47%	2.14	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	46%	2.18	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Alcione / FT Alcione ✓	22%	4.62	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	8%	12.56	–

Alcione – last 6

DDDLDW

11 Oct	@ Lecco	1–1	D
4 Oct	vs Trento	2–2	D
27 Sep	@ Albinoleffe	1–1	D
20 Sep	vs Union Brescia	0–4	L
17 Sep	@ PRO Vercelli	2–2	D
13 Sep	@ Folgore Caratese	3–2	W

1.5Scored / game

2.0Conceded / game

83%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Desenzano Calvina – last 6

WWDDLW

10 Oct	vs Dolomiti Bellunesi	2–0	W
3 Oct	@ Folgore Caratese	2–1	W
26 Sep	vs Juventus U23	0–0	D
21 Sep	@ Treviso	0–0	D
17 Sep	vs Lecco	1–3	L
13 Sep	@ Arzignano Valchiampo	2–1	W

1.2Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cittadella	13	10	1	2	+13	31
2	Union Brescia	13	8	4	1	+15	28
3	Trento	13	7	6	0	+12	27
4	Ospitaletto	13	6	4	3	+8	22
5	Treviso	13	6	4	3	+5	22
6	Arzignano Valchiampo	13	6	3	4	+4	21
7	Lecco	13	5	5	3	+11	20
8	Alcione	13	4	6	3	+2	18
9	Albinoleffe	13	4	5	4	+1	17
10	Pergolettese	13	4	5	4	-1	17
11	Lumezzane	13	4	4	5	-3	16
12	PRO Vercelli	13	4	4	5	-7	16
13	Desenzano Calvina	13	3	4	6	-5	13
14	Novara	13	3	4	6	-7	13
15	Athletic Carpi	13	3	4	6	-10	13
16	Giana Erminio	13	2	6	5	-4	12
17	Renate	13	2	5	6	-1	11
18	Juventus U23	13	2	5	6	-11	11
19	Dolomiti Bellunesi	13	2	4	7	-12	10
20	Folgore Caratese	13	1	5	7	-10	8

Team

Pts

+13

+15

+12

+11

-1

-3

-7

-5

-7

-10

-4

-1

-11

-12

-10

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Alcione vs Desenzano Calvina?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.

Who will win Alcione vs Desenzano Calvina?

On our numbers Alcione have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Desenzano Calvina 36%.

How many goals will there be in Alcione vs Desenzano Calvina?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Alcione vs Desenzano Calvina?

Our predicted score is Alcione 1–1 Desenzano Calvina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Alcione vs Desenzano Calvina?

Alcione vs Desenzano Calvina (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Ernesto Breda.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Alcione v Desenzano Calvina: numbers & prediction