Ospitaletto v Pergolettese Prediction & Expected Goals (18 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultOspitaletto to win ✗63% · @1.80

Double chanceOspitaletto or draw ✗88% · @1.20

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.85

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.36

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗23% · fair 4.32

Ospitaletto vs Pergolettese: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Pergolettese travel to face Ospitaletto on Sunday 18 October in the Serie C Girone A, with Stadio Comunale Gino Corioni the venue – the ball rolls at 16:30 WAT. In the table, Ospitaletto are 4th, among the top four, on 22 points after 13 matches; Pergolettese are 10th (upper half) with 17.

Current form

Ospitaletto, last 5: WDWLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Treviso, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Pergolettese, last 5: WDDDD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Athletic Carpi, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Ospitaletto 1.4 xG, Pergolettese 0.4 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 74%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Ospitaletto 63%, draw 25%, Pergolettese 12%.
Lower-risk option: Ospitaletto or draw (88%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Ospitaletto to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 63%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Ospitaletto or draw (88%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.14, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ospitaletto 1–0 Pergolettese. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Ospitaletto63%fair 1.59 · @1.80

Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.00

Pergolettese12%fair 8.16 · @4.20

1.78Expected goals

1.37Ospitaletto xG

0.41Pergolettese xG

50%Both score

26%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–023%

0–017%

2–016%

1–19%

3–07%

0–17%

From our goals model: Ospitaletto 1.4 – 0.4 Pergolettese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Ospitaletto to win ✗	63%	1.59	1.80 ▲
Double chance	Ospitaletto or draw ✗	88%	1.14	1.20 ▲
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✗	50%	1.98	1.85
Draw no bet	Ospitaletto (draw no bet) ✗	84%	1.19	–
Asian handicap	Ospitaletto -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	61%	1.63	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	53%	1.88	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	74%	1.36	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	89%	1.12	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	97%	1.04	–
First team to score	Ospitaletto to score first ✓	64%	1.56	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	51%	1.97	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Ospitaletto / FT Ospitaletto ✗	37%	2.72	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	23%	4.32	–

Ospitaletto – last 6

WDWLDW

11 Oct	@ Treviso	1–0	W
3 Oct	vs Renate	1–1	D
26 Sep	@ Novara	2–0	W
20 Sep	vs Cittadella	0–1	L
17 Sep	@ Athletic Carpi	2–2	D
13 Sep	vs Juventus U23	3–0	W

1.5Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

33%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Pergolettese – last 6

WDDDDW

10 Oct	vs Athletic Carpi	2–1	W
3 Oct	@ Arzignano Valchiampo	2–2	D
26 Sep	vs Trento	0–0	D
20 Sep	@ Lecco	0–0	D
17 Sep	vs Folgore Caratese	0–0	D
13 Sep	@ Novara	1–0	W

0.8Scored / game

0.5Conceded / game

33%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cittadella	13	10	1	2	+13	31
2	Union Brescia	13	8	4	1	+15	28
3	Trento	13	7	6	0	+12	27
4	Ospitaletto	13	6	4	3	+8	22
5	Treviso	13	6	4	3	+5	22
6	Arzignano Valchiampo	13	6	3	4	+4	21
7	Lecco	13	5	5	3	+11	20
8	Alcione	13	4	6	3	+2	18
9	Albinoleffe	13	4	5	4	+1	17
10	Pergolettese	13	4	5	4	-1	17
11	Lumezzane	13	4	4	5	-3	16
12	PRO Vercelli	13	4	4	5	-7	16
13	Desenzano Calvina	13	3	4	6	-5	13
14	Novara	13	3	4	6	-7	13
15	Athletic Carpi	13	3	4	6	-10	13
16	Giana Erminio	13	2	6	5	-4	12
17	Renate	13	2	5	6	-1	11
18	Juventus U23	13	2	5	6	-11	11
19	Dolomiti Bellunesi	13	2	4	7	-12	10
20	Folgore Caratese	13	1	5	7	-10	8

Team

Pts

+13

+15

+12

+11

-1

-3

-7

-5

-7

-10

-4

-1

-11

-12

-10

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Ospitaletto vs Pergolettese?

Our pick is Ospitaletto or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Ospitaletto vs Pergolettese?

On our numbers Ospitaletto have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Pergolettese 12%.

How many goals will there be in Ospitaletto vs Pergolettese?

We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Ospitaletto vs Pergolettese?

Our predicted score is Ospitaletto 1–0 Pergolettese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.

When is Ospitaletto vs Pergolettese?

Ospitaletto vs Pergolettese (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Comunale Gino Corioni.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Ospitaletto v Pergolettese: numbers & prediction