Livorno 60%Draw 22%Ostia Mare 18%Expected goals 1.74 – 0.81
82%
Betarazi pick
Livorno or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Livorno to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLivorno to win ✓60% · @1.85
Double chanceLivorno or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.44
Livorno vs Ostia Mare: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:30 WAT, Sunday 1 November: Livorno v Ostia Mare in the Serie C Girone B, played at Stadio Armando Picchi. In the table, Livorno are 8th, upper half, on 20 points after 13 matches; Ostia Mare are 18th (in the drop zone) with 9.
Current form
Livorno, last 5: LLDDL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Spezia, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Ostia Mare, last 5: LLDDD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Vado, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Livorno 1.7 xG, Ostia Mare 0.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Livorno 60%, draw 22%, Ostia Mare 18%.
Lower-risk option: Livorno or draw (82%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Livorno to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Livorno or draw (82%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.22, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Livorno 1–0 Ostia Mare. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Livorno60%fair 1.67 · @1.85
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.25
Ostia Mare18%fair 5.57 · @3.50
2.55Expected goals
1.74Livorno xG
0.81Ostia Mare xG
55%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Livorno 1.7 – 0.8 Ostia Mare expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Livorno to win✓
60%
1.67
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Livorno or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
1.62
Draw no bet
Livorno (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Ostia Mare +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
First team to score
Livorno to score first✓
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Livorno / FT Livorno✗
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.44
–
Recent results
Livorno – last 6
LLDDLW
28 Oct
@ Spezia
1–2
L
24 Oct
@ Sambenedettese
1–2
L
16 Oct
vs Grosseto
4–4
D
11 Oct
@ Forli
1–1
D
3 Oct
vs Pescara
0–1
L
26 Sep
vs Pianese
3–2
W
1.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Ostia Mare – last 6
LLDDDW
23 Oct
vs Vado
1–2
L
18 Oct
@ Pescara
0–2
L
10 Oct
vs Pianese
0–0
D
4 Oct
@ Latina
1–1
D
27 Sep
vs Forli
1–1
D
20 Sep
@ Gubbio
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Livorno and Ostia Mare.
Our pick is Livorno or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Livorno vs Ostia Mare?
On our numbers Livorno have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Ostia Mare 18%.
How many goals will there be in Livorno vs Ostia Mare?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Livorno vs Ostia Mare?
Our predicted score is Livorno 1–0 Ostia Mare, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Livorno vs Ostia Mare?
Livorno vs Ostia Mare (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Armando Picchi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
