Bari v Potenza Prediction & Expected Goals (15 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultBari to win ✗57% · @1.80

Double chanceBari or draw ✓80% · @1.22

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.80

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗82% · fair 1.22

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.11

Bari vs Potenza: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

20:00 WAT, Tuesday 15 September: Bari v Potenza in the Serie C Girone C, played at Stadio San Nicola. In the table, Bari are 2nd, among the top four, on 23 points after 13 matches; Potenza are 1st (leading the league) with 32.

Current form

Bari, last 5: WWDLW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Team Altamura, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Potenza, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to Salernitana, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Bari 2.0 xG, Potenza 1.1 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 61% and GG at 58%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Bari 57%, draw 23%, Potenza 20%.
Lower-risk option: Bari or draw (80%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.80.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Bari or draw (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bari 2–1 Potenza. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Bari57%fair 1.76 · @1.80

Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.10

Potenza20%fair 5.03 · @4.00

3.13Expected goals

2.01Bari xG

1.12Potenza xG

58%Both score

61%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–110%

1–110%

2–09%

1–09%

3–17%

3–06%

From our goals model: Bari 2.0 – 1.1 Potenza expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Bari to win ✗	57%	1.76	1.80
Double chance	Bari or draw ✓	80%	1.25	1.22
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	58%	1.72	1.80
Draw no bet	Bari (draw no bet)	74%	1.35	–
Asian handicap	Potenza +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	65%	1.53	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	82%	1.22	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	61%	1.65	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	62%	1.62	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	79%	1.26	–
First team to score	Bari to score first ✗	61%	1.63	–
Half-time result	Bari ahead at half-time ✗	43%	2.33	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Bari / FT Bari ✗	37%	2.73	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.11	–

Bari – last 6

WWDLWW

11 Sep	@ Team Altamura	3–0	W
5 Sep	vs Casarano	1–0	W
1 Sep	vs AZ Picerno	1–1	D
28 Aug	@ Barletta	0–3	L
21 Aug	vs Cavese	3–0	W
16 Aug	vs Casarano	1–0	W

1.5Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

17%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Potenza – last 6

LWDWWL

11 Sep	@ Salernitana	2–4	L
5 Sep	vs SS Monopoli	1–0	W
1 Sep	vs SS Monopoli	1–1	D
29 Aug	@ Cosenza	2–1	W
21 Aug	vs Casarano	4–1	W
8 Aug	@ Ascoli	1–3	L

1.8Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

83%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Potenza	13	10	2	1	+17	32
2	Bari	13	6	5	2	+7	23
3	Catania	13	7	1	5	+13	22
4	Scafatese	13	5	6	2	+5	21
5	Audace Cerignola	13	6	2	5	+5	20
6	SS Monopoli	13	5	5	3	+4	20
7	Inter U23	13	6	2	5	+2	20
8	Casertana	13	5	5	3	+2	20
9	Sorrento	13	6	2	5	+1	20
10	AZ Picerno	13	6	1	6	+3	19
11	Cavese	13	4	4	5	+1	16
12	Team Altamura	13	4	4	5	-6	16
13	Giugliano	13	5	1	7	-12	16
14	Salernitana	13	3	6	4	-2	15
15	Barletta	13	3	6	4	-2	15
16	Foggia	13	4	3	6	-3	15
17	Casarano	13	4	3	6	-6	15
18	Savoia	13	2	6	5	-7	12
19	Cosenza	13	2	4	7	-13	10
20	Crotone	13	1	4	8	-9	1

Team

Pts

+17

+13

-6

-12

-2

-2

-3

-6

-7

-13

-9

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bari vs Potenza?

Our pick is Bari or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Bari vs Potenza?

On our numbers Bari have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Potenza 20%.

How many goals will there be in Bari vs Potenza?

We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Bari vs Potenza?

Our predicted score is Bari 2–1 Potenza, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.

When is Bari vs Potenza?

Bari vs Potenza (Serie C Girone C) kicks off on Tuesday 15 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio San Nicola.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Bari v Potenza: numbers & prediction