Independiente Res. v Boca Juniors Res. Prediction & Expected Goals (1 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultBoca Juniors Res. to win ✗43% · @2.05

Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.35

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.85

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.31

Independiente Res. vs Boca Juniors Res.: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

19:00 WAT, Thursday 1 October: Independiente Res. v Boca Juniors Res. in the Reserve League. In the table, Independiente Res. are 1st, leading the league, on 37 points after 16 matches; Boca Juniors Res. are 5th (upper half) with 31.

Current form

Independiente Res., last 5: WWLDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Racing Club Res., away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Boca Juniors Res., last 5: DDWWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with River Plate Res., away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Head to head

When they last met (30 Apr 2026) it ended Boca Juniors Res. 0–1 Independiente Res..

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Independiente Res. 1.2 xG, Boca Juniors Res. 1.4 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 54%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente Res. 33%, draw 24%, Boca Juniors Res. 43%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Independiente Res. to win @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 33%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (54%, odds 1.85). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente Res. 1–1 Boca Juniors Res.. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Independiente Res.33%fair 3.06 · @3.40

Draw24%fair 4.13 · @2.90

Boca Juniors Res.43%fair 2.32 · @2.05

2.64Expected goals

1.21Independiente Res. xG

1.43Boca Juniors Res. xG

54%Both score

49%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%

0–110%

1–29%

1–09%

2–17%

0–27%

From our goals model: Independiente Res. 1.2 – 1.4 Boca Juniors Res. expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Boca Juniors Res. to win ✗	43%	2.32	2.05
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	76%	1.32	1.35
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	54%	1.85	1.85
Draw no bet	Boca Juniors Res. (draw no bet) ✗	57%	1.76	–
Asian handicap	Independiente Res. +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	74%	1.35	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	74%	1.35	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	51%	1.97	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	73%	1.37	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	87%	1.15	–
First team to score	Boca Juniors Res. to score first ✓	50%	1.98	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	43%	2.34	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Boca Juniors Res. / FT Boca Juniors Res. ✗	25%	4.03	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	9%	11.31	–

Independiente Res. – last 6

WWLDWD

24 Sep	@ Racing Club Res.	2–1	W
15 Sep	vs Colón Res.	1–0	W
8 Sep	@ Atl. Rafaela 2	1–2	L
2 Sep	vs Platense Res.	1–1	D
26 Aug	@ Quilmes 2	2–1	W
19 Aug	vs Estudiantes La Plata Res	1–1	D

1.3Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

83%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Boca Juniors Res. – last 6

DDWWWL

25 Sep	@ River Plate Res.	2–2	D
17 Sep	vs Atl. Rafaela 2	0–0	D
9 Sep	@ Platense Res.	2–0	W
3 Sep	vs Quilmes 2	1–0	W
26 Aug	@ Estudiantes La Plata Res	3–2	W
20 Aug	vs Central Córdoba SdE Res.	0–1	L

1.3Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

33%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vélez Sársfield Res.	20	15	2	3	+29	47
2	Boca Juniors Res.	20	12	3	5	+24	39
3	Racing Club Res.	21	11	6	4	+7	39
4	River Plate Res.	21	11	4	6	+9	37
5	Independiente Res.	19	11	3	5	+19	36
6	Lanús Res.	19	11	2	6	+13	35
7	Newell's Old Boys Res.	19	10	4	5	+9	34
8	Quilmes 2	18	10	3	5	+8	33
9	Defensa y Justicia Res.	18	9	5	4	+14	32
10	Atlético Tucumán Res.	19	9	3	7	-2	30
11	Unión Santa Fe Res.	18	7	8	3	+4	29
12	Estudiantes La Plata Res	18	8	4	6	+9	28
13	Argentinos Juniors Res.	18	7	7	4	+6	28
14	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	18	8	3	7	-2	27
15	Talleres Córdoba Res.	18	7	5	6	+6	26
16	Huracán Res.	18	7	5	6	+6	26
17	Rosario Central Res.	18	7	5	6	+3	26
18	Platense Res.	18	7	5	6	-3	26
19	Deportivo Riestra Res.	18	7	4	7	+7	25
20	Independiente Riva. Res.	18	7	3	8	0	24
21	Instituto Res.	18	5	9	4	-1	24
22	San Lorenzo Res.	18	6	6	6	-2	24
23	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	18	6	5	7	+2	23
24	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	18	6	5	7	-3	23
25	Banfield Res.	18	6	5	7	-4	23
26	Ferro 2	18	6	4	8	-3	22
27	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	18	5	4	9	-12	19
28	Colón Res.	18	5	3	10	-8	18
29	Aldosivi Res.	18	5	3	10	-11	18
30	Barracas Central Res.	18	4	5	9	-13	17
31	Sarmiento Res.	18	4	4	10	-10	16
32	Tigre Res.	18	4	4	10	-10	16
33	Godoy Cruz Res.	18	4	3	11	-10	15
34	Atl. Rafaela 2	18	3	3	12	-15	12
35	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	18	2	5	11	-23	11
36	San Martín San Juan Res.	18	2	2	14	-43	8

Team

Pts

+29

+24

+19

+13

Newell's Old Boys Res.

Quilmes 2

Defensa y Justicia Res.

+14

Atlético Tucumán Res.

-2

Unión Santa Fe Res.

Estudiantes La Plata Res

Argentinos Juniors Res.

Belgrano Córdoba Res.

-2

Talleres Córdoba Res.

Huracán Res.

Rosario Central Res.

Platense Res.

-3

Deportivo Riestra Res.

Independiente Riva. Res.

Instituto Res.

-1

San Lorenzo Res.

-2

Gimnasia La Plata Res.

Gimnasia Mendoza 2

-3

Banfield Res.

-4

Ferro 2

-3

Central Córdoba SdE Res.

-12

Colón Res.

-8

Aldosivi Res.

-11

Barracas Central Res.

-13

-10

-10

-10

-15

Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2

-23

San Martín San Juan Res.

-43

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Independiente Res. vs Boca Juniors Res.?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.

Who will win Independiente Res. vs Boca Juniors Res.?

On our numbers Independiente Res. have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Boca Juniors Res. 43%.

How many goals will there be in Independiente Res. vs Boca Juniors Res.?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Independiente Res. vs Boca Juniors Res.?

Our predicted score is Independiente Res. 1–1 Boca Juniors Res., the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Independiente Res. vs Boca Juniors Res.?

Independiente Res. vs Boca Juniors Res. (Reserve League) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Independiente Res. v Boca Juniors Res.: numbers & prediction