Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
Picks by market
ResultSámano to win ✓45% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.06
Sámano vs Guarnizo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:00 WAT, Sunday 20 September: Sámano v Guarnizo in the Tercera División RFEF Group 3. In the table, Sámano are 6th, upper half, on 19 points after 10 matches; Guarnizo are 13th (lower half) with 8.
Current form
Sámano, last 5: LDLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Vimenor, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Guarnizo, last 5: LLLDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Cayón, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Guarnizo, collecting 0.8 points per game to 0.2 for Sámano.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sámano 1.5 xG, Guarnizo 1.2 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sámano 45%, draw 23%, Guarnizo 32%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (60%, odds 1.70 – longer than our fair 1.65, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sámano 1–1 Guarnizo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sámano45%fair 2.25 · @2.38
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.00
Guarnizo32%fair 3.12 · @2.80
2.75Expected goals
1.51Sámano xG
1.24Guarnizo xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
1–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: Sámano 1.5 – 1.2 Guarnizo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sámano to win✓
45%
2.25
2.38 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.65
1.70
Draw no bet
Sámano (draw no bet)✓
58%
1.72
–
Asian handicap
Guarnizo +1 (Asian handicap)✗
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
86%
1.17
–
First team to score
Sámano to score first✓
51%
1.94
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sámano / FT Sámano✓
26%
3.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.06
–
Recent results
Sámano – last 6
LDLLLL
13 Sep
@ Vimenor
1–2
L
5 Sep
vs Barquereño
2–2
D
3 May
vs Bergantiños
0–5
L
26 Apr
@ Marino de Luanco
1–4
L
19 Apr
vs Numancia
0–3
L
22 Mar
@ UD Ourense
1–3
L
0.8Scored / game
3.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Guarnizo – last 6
LLLDWD
12 Sep
vs Cayón
0–1
L
6 Sep
@ Atlético Mineros
1–2
L
24 May
@ Tropezón
0–3
L
17 May
vs Tropezón
0–0
D
22 Mar
vs Escobedo
1–0
W
15 Mar
@ Vimenor
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sámano and Guarnizo.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Sámano vs Guarnizo?
On our numbers Sámano have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Guarnizo 32%.
How many goals will there be in Sámano vs Guarnizo?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sámano vs Guarnizo?
Our predicted score is Sámano 1–1 Guarnizo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Sámano vs Guarnizo?
Sámano vs Guarnizo (Tercera División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
