Unión Adarve vs Móstoles: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 11 October the Tercera División RFEF Group 7 brings Unión Adarve against Móstoles. Kick-off: 11:00 WAT. In the table, Unión Adarve are 6th, upper half, on 16 points after 10 matches; Móstoles are 1st (leading the league) with 23.
Current form
Unión Adarve, last 5: LDDDW Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Torrejón, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Móstoles, last 5: DWWWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Leganés II, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Móstoles, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for Unión Adarve.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Unión Adarve 1.0 xG, Móstoles 1.2 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Unión Adarve 31%, draw 23%, Móstoles 46%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (53%, odds 1.70). Most likely score in line with that pick: Unión Adarve 1–1 Móstoles. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Unión Adarve31%fair 3.23 · @3.00
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.00
Móstoles46%fair 2.19 · @2.20
2.20Expected goals
0.95Unión Adarve xG
1.25Móstoles xG
53%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
1–011%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Unión Adarve 1.0 – 1.2 Móstoles expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Móstoles to win✗
46%
2.19
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.70
Draw no bet
Móstoles (draw no bet)✗
60%
1.68
–
Asian handicap
Unión Adarve +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Móstoles to score first
50%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Móstoles / FT Móstoles✗
25%
4.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.18
–
Recent results
Unión Adarve – last 6
LDDDWL
4 Oct
@ Torrejón
0–4
L
27 Sep
vs Fuenlabrada
2–2
D
19 Sep
@ Alcobendas Sport
1–1
D
13 Sep
vs Colonia Moscardó
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ SS Reyes II
2–0
W
30 Aug
@ Marchamalo
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Móstoles – last 6
DWWWDD
4 Oct
vs Leganés II
1–1
D
27 Sep
@ Torrejón
1–0
W
20 Sep
vs Cala Pozuelo
1–0
W
13 Sep
@ Fuenlabrada
3–1
W
6 Sep
vs Rayo Vallecano II
0–0
D
10 May
@ A Madrid III
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Unión Adarve and Móstoles.
What is the prediction for Unión Adarve vs Móstoles?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Unión Adarve vs Móstoles?
On our numbers Unión Adarve have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Móstoles 46%.
How many goals will there be in Unión Adarve vs Móstoles?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Unión Adarve vs Móstoles?
Our predicted score is Unión Adarve 1–1 Móstoles, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Unión Adarve vs Móstoles?
Unión Adarve vs Móstoles (Tercera División RFEF Group 7) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
