Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Bala Azul to win @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBala Azul to win ✗59% · @1.85
Double chanceBala Azul or draw ✗83% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗25% · fair 3.99
Bala Azul vs Alcantarilla: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alcantarilla travel to face Bala Azul on Sunday 27 September in the Tercera División RFEF Group 13 – the ball rolls at 18:00 WAT. In the table, Bala Azul are 8th, upper half, on 13 points after 9 matches; Alcantarilla are 10th (lower half) with 12. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Bala Azul, last 5: DWDWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Águilas II, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Alcantarilla, last 3: WDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Cotillas CD, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bala Azul 1.1 xG, Alcantarilla 0.4 xG – a total near 1.5. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 81% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bala Azul 59%, draw 24%, Alcantarilla 17%.
Lower-risk option: Bala Azul or draw (83%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: NG (56%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Bala Azul to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Bala Azul or draw (83%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bala Azul 1–0 Alcantarilla. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bala Azul59%fair 1.69 · @1.85
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.10
Alcantarilla17%fair 5.99 · @4.00
1.50Expected goals
1.12Bala Azul xG
0.38Alcantarilla xG
44%Both score
19%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–025%
0–022%
2–014%
1–19%
0–18%
2–15%
From our goals model: Bala Azul 1.1 – 0.4 Alcantarilla expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bala Azul to win✗
59%
1.69
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Bala Azul or draw✗
83%
1.20
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.75
Draw no bet
Bala Azul (draw no bet)✗
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Alcantarilla +1 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
98%
1.02
–
First team to score
Bala Azul to score first✗
58%
1.72
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
56%
1.79
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bala Azul / FT Bala Azul✗
31%
3.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
25%
3.99
–
Recent results
Bala Azul – last 6
DWDWDD
20 Sep
@ Águilas II
0–0
D
12 Sep
vs Mazarrón FC
1–0
W
6 Sep
@ Olímpico Totana
2–2
D
5 Apr
vs Real Murcia II
2–0
W
22 Mar
vs SFC Minerva
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Atlético Pulpileño
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Alcantarilla – last 3
WDD
20 Sep
vs Cotillas CD
2–0
W
12 Sep
vs Atlético Pulpileño
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ Águilas II
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bala Azul and Alcantarilla.
What is the prediction for Bala Azul vs Alcantarilla?
Our pick is Bala Azul or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Bala Azul vs Alcantarilla?
On our numbers Bala Azul have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alcantarilla 17%.
How many goals will there be in Bala Azul vs Alcantarilla?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bala Azul vs Alcantarilla?
Our predicted score is Bala Azul 1–0 Alcantarilla, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Bala Azul vs Alcantarilla?
Bala Azul vs Alcantarilla (Tercera División RFEF Group 13) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
