Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
Picks by market
ResultIllescas to win ✓61% · @1.75
Double chanceIllescas or draw ✓86% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.55
Illescas vs Villarrubia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Villarrubia travel to face Illescas on Sunday 27 September in the Tercera División RFEF Group 18 – the ball rolls at 11:00 WAT. In the table, Illescas are 6th, upper half, on 17 points after 10 matches; Villarrubia are 11th (lower half) with 13.
Current form
Illescas, last 5: DDWLD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Quintanar del Rey, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Villarrubia, last 5: LDDDW Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Villarrobledo, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Illescas, collecting 1.5 points per game to 1.0 for Villarrubia.
Head to head
When they last met (1 Mar 2026) it ended Illescas 0–0 Villarrubia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Illescas 1.6 xG, Villarrubia 0.6 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Illescas 61%, draw 25%, Villarrubia 14%.
Lower-risk option: Illescas or draw (86%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.67.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Illescas to win (61%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.63, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Illescas 1–0 Villarrubia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Illescas61%fair 1.63 · @1.75
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.10
Villarrubia14%fair 7.39 · @4.75
2.17Expected goals
1.58Illescas xG
0.59Villarrubia xG
48%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
2–014%
0–011%
1–111%
2–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Illescas 1.6 – 0.6 Villarrubia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Illescas vs Villarrubia?
Our pick is Illescas to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Illescas vs Villarrubia?
On our numbers Illescas have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Villarrubia 14%.
How many goals will there be in Illescas vs Villarrubia?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Illescas vs Villarrubia?
Our predicted score is Illescas 1–0 Villarrubia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Illescas vs Villarrubia?
Illescas vs Villarrubia (Tercera División RFEF Group 18) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
