Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.18 – our chance 53% vs 46% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultToledo to win ✓74% · @1.22
Double chanceToledo or draw ✓93% · fair 1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.18
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.01
Toledo vs Marchamalo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
18:00 WAT, Sunday 8 November: Toledo v Marchamalo in the Tercera División RFEF Group 18. In the table, Toledo are 2nd, among the top four, on 22 points after 10 matches; Marchamalo are 13th (lower half) with 12.
Current form
Toledo, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over San Clemente, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.
Marchamalo, last 5: DLWLD Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Quintanar del Rey, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Toledo, collecting 2.5 points per game to 0.8 for Marchamalo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Toledo 2.4 xG, Marchamalo 0.7 xG – a total near 3.2. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 53% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Toledo 74%, draw 19%, Marchamalo 7%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.18.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.18 – the bookmaker implies 46%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Toledo to win (74%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Toledo 2–0 Marchamalo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Toledo74%fair 1.36 · @1.22
Draw19%fair 5.21 · @4.90
Marchamalo7%fair 13.86 · @10.25
3.15Expected goals
2.44Toledo xG
0.72Marchamalo xG
53%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–013%
1–010%
3–010%
2–19%
1–17%
3–17%
From our goals model: Toledo 2.4 – 0.7 Marchamalo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toledo to win✓
74%
1.36
1.22
Double chance
Toledo or draw✓
93%
1.08
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
2.18 ▲
Draw no bet
Toledo (draw no bet)✓
91%
1.10
–
Asian handicap
Toledo -1 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.68
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.12
First team to score
Toledo to score first✓
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Toledo ahead at half-time✓
55%
1.82
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toledo / FT Toledo✓
51%
1.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.01
–
Recent results
Toledo – last 6
WWLWWW
31 Oct
@ San Clemente
3–2
W
25 Oct
vs Almansa
2–0
W
17 Oct
@ Manchego
0–1
L
11 Oct
vs Huracán Balazote
3–1
W
3 Oct
@ Villacañas
2–1
W
27 Sep
vs La Solana
4–0
W
2.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Marchamalo – last 6
DLWLDL
31 Oct
vs Quintanar del Rey
3–3
D
25 Oct
@ San Clemente
1–3
L
17 Oct
vs Socuéllamos
1–0
W
10 Oct
@ Almansa
1–3
L
3 Oct
vs Tarancón
2–2
D
27 Sep
@ Manchego
2–3
L
1.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toledo and Marchamalo.
Our pick is Toledo to win with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Toledo vs Marchamalo?
On our numbers Toledo have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Marchamalo 7%.
How many goals will there be in Toledo vs Marchamalo?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toledo vs Marchamalo?
Our predicted score is Toledo 2–0 Marchamalo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Toledo vs Marchamalo?
Toledo vs Marchamalo (Tercera División RFEF Group 18) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
