Value bet: Derby County U21 to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDerby County U21 to win ✓57% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗70% · @1.35
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 14.87
Birmingham City U21 vs Derby County U21: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Monday 19 October: Birmingham City U21 v Derby County U21 in the Premier League 2 Division One, played at Damson Park. In the table, Birmingham City U21 are 30th, in the drop zone, on 3 points after 6 matches; Derby County U21 are 18th (lower half) with 8.
Current form
Birmingham City U21, last 5: LLDWL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Truro City, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Derby County U21, last 5: DLLLW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Scunthorpe, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Birmingham City U21 1.9 xG, Derby County U21 2.8 xG – a total near 4.7. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 85% and GG at 70%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Birmingham City U21 27%, draw 16%, Derby County U21 57%.
GG/NG: GG (70%) at 1.35.
Price worth noting: Derby County U21 to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (70%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: Birmingham City U21 1–2 Derby County U21. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Birmingham City U2127%fair 3.72 · @2.90
Draw16%fair 6.26 · @3.80
Derby County U2157%fair 1.75 · @1.91
4.71Expected goals
1.92Birmingham City U21 xG
2.79Derby County U21 xG
70%Both score
85%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–27%
2–26%
1–36%
2–36%
1–15%
2–15%
From our goals model: Birmingham City U21 1.9 – 2.8 Derby County U21 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Derby County U21 to win✓
57%
1.75
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
70%
1.43
1.35
Draw no bet
Derby County U21 (draw no bet)✓
68%
1.47
–
Asian handicap
Birmingham City U21 +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
95%
1.05
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Over 4.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
–
First team to score
Derby County U21 to score first✓
59%
1.71
–
Half-time result
Derby County U21 ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Derby County U21 / FT Derby County U21✓
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
14.87
–
Recent results
Birmingham City U21 – last 6
LLDWLD
13 Oct
@ Truro City
0–3
L
9 Oct
vs Huddersfield Town U21
2–4
L
18 Sep
vs Arsenal U21
0–0
D
15 Sep
@ Gillingham FC U21
4–0
W
11 Sep
@ Norwich City U21
2–4
L
8 Sep
@ Sutton Utd
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Derby County U21 – last 6
DLLLWD
13 Oct
@ Scunthorpe
2–2
D
10 Oct
@ Brentford U21
2–4
L
18 Sep
@ Burnley U21
1–4
L
11 Sep
vs Tottenham Hotspur U21
1–3
L
8 Sep
@ Gateshead
3–1
W
31 Aug
vs West Bromwich Albion U21
4–4
D
2.2Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Birmingham City U21 and Derby County U21.
What is the prediction for Birmingham City U21 vs Derby County U21?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Birmingham City U21 vs Derby County U21?
On our numbers Birmingham City U21 have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Derby County U21 57%.
How many goals will there be in Birmingham City U21 vs Derby County U21?
We expect about 4.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 85% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Birmingham City U21 vs Derby County U21?
Our predicted score is Birmingham City U21 1–2 Derby County U21, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.7 goals in total.
When is Birmingham City U21 vs Derby County U21?
Birmingham City U21 vs Derby County U21 (Premier League 2 Division One) kicks off on Monday 19 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Damson Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
