Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNewcastle to win ✓68% · @1.33
Double chanceNewcastle or draw ✓86% · @1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.80
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70% · @1.50
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.89
Newcastle vs West Brom: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Newcastle welcome West Brom to St James' Park for a League Cup fixture on Wednesday 26 August (19:45 WAT).
Current form
Newcastle, last 5: DDLLW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Liverpool, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
West Brom, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Burnley, at home. Away from home the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. 3.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours West Brom, collecting 3.0 points per game to 0.8 for Newcastle.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Newcastle 2.8 xG, West Brom 1.3 xG – a total near 4.1. That is an open game on paper: 70% for three or more goals, 60% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Newcastle 68%, draw 18%, West Brom 14%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (70%, odds 1.50 – longer than our fair 1.43, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Newcastle 2–1 West Brom. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Newcastle68%fair 1.47 · @1.33
Draw18%fair 5.46 · @5.00
West Brom14%fair 7.25 · @8.40
4.11Expected goals
2.82Newcastle xG
1.29West Brom xG
60%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–18%
3–18%
2–07%
3–06%
1–16%
4–16%
From our goals model: Newcastle 2.8 – 1.3 West Brom expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newcastle to win✓
68%
1.47
1.33
Double chance
Newcastle or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Newcastle (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.20
–
Asian handicap
Newcastle -1 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.50 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
1.60
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
68%
1.46
1.25
First team to score
Newcastle to score first
67%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Newcastle ahead at half-time✗
53%
1.90
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Newcastle / FT Newcastle✗
47%
2.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.89
–
Recent results
Newcastle – last 6
DDLLWL
23 Aug
vs Liverpool
2–2
D
16 Aug
vs Strasbourg
1–1
D
15 Aug
vs Bayer Leverkusen
1–2
L
12 Aug
vs Everton
1–3
L
8 Aug
@ Valencia
2–1
W
29 Jul
@ Bristol City
1–4
L
1.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
West Brom – last 6
WWWWWW
23 Aug
vs Burnley
3–1
W
15 Aug
@ Norwich
2–1
W
8 Aug
@ Rotherham
4–1
W
1 Aug
@ Peterborough
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ Shrewsbury
4–1
W
17 Jul
vs Bromley
4–1
W
3.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newcastle and West Brom.
What is the prediction for Newcastle vs West Brom?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Newcastle vs West Brom?
On our numbers Newcastle have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 18% and West Brom 14%.
How many goals will there be in Newcastle vs West Brom?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle vs West Brom?
Our predicted score is Newcastle 2–1 West Brom, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is Newcastle vs West Brom?
Newcastle vs West Brom (League Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 26 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at St James' Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Bradford0
Burnley0
Tottenham5
Charlton1
Preston0
Everton4