Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Penarol to win @ 1.88 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPenarol to win ✗58% · @1.88
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.47
Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Penarol travel to face Deportivo Maldonado on Saturday 22 August in the Primera División Apertura – the ball rolls at 22:30 WAT. In the table, Deportivo Maldonado are 4th, among the top four, on 22 points after 13 matches; Penarol are 5th (upper half) with 22. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Deportivo Maldonado, last 5: WDDLD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Progreso, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Penarol, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Central Espanol, at home. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Penarol, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.5 for Deportivo Maldonado.
Head to head
When they last met (23 Feb 2026) it ended Penarol 2–1 Deportivo Maldonado.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo Maldonado 0.8 xG, Penarol 1.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo Maldonado 17%, draw 25%, Penarol 58%.
Lower-risk option: Penarol or draw (83%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Penarol to win @1.88 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Penarol or draw (83%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo Maldonado 0–1 Penarol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportivo Maldonado17%fair 5.86 · @3.95
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @3.30
Penarol58%fair 1.73 · @1.88
2.53Expected goals
0.82Deportivo Maldonado xG
1.71Penarol xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Deportivo Maldonado 0.8 – 1.7 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol?
Our pick is Penarol or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol?
On our numbers Deportivo Maldonado have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Penarol 58%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Maldonado 0–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol?
Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
