Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
O2.5
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLucchese to win ✓65% · @1.48
Double chanceLucchese or draw ✓87% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · fair 2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✗8% · fair 12.47
Lucchese vs Progresso: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Progresso travel to face Lucchese on Wednesday 16 September in the Serie D Girone E, with Porta Elisa the venue – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT. In the table, Lucchese are 6th, upper half, on 18 points after 11 matches; Progresso are 17th (in the drop zone) with 6. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Progresso, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Scandicci, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lucchese 2.1 xG, Progresso 0.9 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 51% for three or more goals, 50% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lucchese 65%, draw 21%, Progresso 13%.
Price worth noting: Over 2.5 goals @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Lucchese to win (65%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lucchese 2–0 Progresso. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lucchese65%fair 1.53 · @1.48
Draw21%fair 4.72 · @3.60
Progresso13%fair 7.46 · @6.50
2.98Expected goals
2.12Lucchese xG
0.86Progresso xG
50%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Lucchese 2.1 – 0.9 Progresso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lucchese to win✓
65%
1.53
1.48
Double chance
Lucchese or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
–
Draw no bet
Lucchese (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.20
–
Asian handicap
Lucchese -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
2.10 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
–
First team to score
Lucchese to score first✓
67%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Lucchese ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lucchese / FT Lucchese✓
43%
2.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–0✗
8%
12.47
–
Recent results
Lucchese – last 2
LW
12 Sep
@ Seravezza
0–5
L
6 Sep
vs Montevarchi Calcio
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Progresso – last 6
WLWDWW
12 Sep
vs Scandicci
2–1
W
6 Sep
@ Tau Altopascio
1–2
L
3 May
vs Sasso Marconi Zola
4–1
W
26 Apr
@ Sant'Angelo
1–1
D
19 Apr
@ Lentigione
2–1
W
2 Apr
@ Tuttocuoio
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lucchese and Progresso.
Our pick is Lucchese to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Lucchese vs Progresso?
On our numbers Lucchese have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Progresso 13%.
How many goals will there be in Lucchese vs Progresso?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lucchese vs Progresso?
Our predicted score is Lucchese 2–0 Progresso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Lucchese vs Progresso?
Lucchese vs Progresso (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Porta Elisa.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
