Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.24 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.24Odds
1
Value bet: Lucchese to win @ 1.85 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLucchese to win ✓63% · @1.85
Double chanceLucchese or draw ✓85% · @1.24
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.09
Lucchese vs San Donato Tavarnelle: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lucchese welcome San Donato Tavarnelle to Porta Elisa for a Serie D Girone E fixture on Sunday 8 November (14:30 WAT). In the table, Lucchese are 6th, upper half, on 18 points after 11 matches; San Donato Tavarnelle are 12th (lower half) with 14.
Current form
Lucchese, last 5: DLDLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Sestri Levante, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
San Donato Tavarnelle, last 5: WLWLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Montevarchi Calcio, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours San Donato Tavarnelle, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Lucchese.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lucchese 2.1 xG, San Donato Tavarnelle 0.9 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 55% and GG at 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lucchese 63%, draw 22%, San Donato Tavarnelle 15%.
Lower-risk option: Lucchese or draw (85%) at 1.24.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Lucchese to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Lucchese or draw (85%, odds 1.24 – longer than our fair 1.18, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lucchese 2–0 San Donato Tavarnelle. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lucchese63%fair 1.58 · @1.85
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.40
San Donato Tavarnelle15%fair 6.68 · @3.65
2.97Expected goals
2.06Lucchese xG
0.91San Donato Tavarnelle xG
61%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Lucchese 2.1 – 0.9 San Donato Tavarnelle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lucchese to win✓
63%
1.58
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Lucchese or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.24 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.64
1.62
Draw no bet
Lucchese (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Lucchese -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.26
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.72
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
First team to score
Lucchese to score first✓
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Lucchese ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lucchese / FT Lucchese✓
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.09
–
Recent results
Lucchese – last 6
DLDLDD
4 Nov
vs Sestri Levante
1–1
D
1 Nov
@ Terranuova Traiana
2–3
L
25 Oct
vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano
1–1
D
18 Oct
@ Sasso Marconi Zola
0–2
L
11 Oct
vs Ternana
2–2
D
7 Oct
@ Seravezza
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
San Donato Tavarnelle – last 6
WLWLDL
1 Nov
vs Montevarchi Calcio
1–0
W
25 Oct
@ Scandicci
1–2
L
18 Oct
vs Tau Altopascio
1–0
W
11 Oct
@ Prato
0–2
L
4 Oct
vs Mezzolara
1–1
D
27 Sep
@ Flaminia
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lucchese and San Donato Tavarnelle.
What is the prediction for Lucchese vs San Donato Tavarnelle?
Our pick is Lucchese or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Lucchese vs San Donato Tavarnelle?
On our numbers Lucchese have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and San Donato Tavarnelle 15%.
How many goals will there be in Lucchese vs San Donato Tavarnelle?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lucchese vs San Donato Tavarnelle?
Our predicted score is Lucchese 2–0 San Donato Tavarnelle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Lucchese vs San Donato Tavarnelle?
Lucchese vs San Donato Tavarnelle (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Porta Elisa.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
