Recanatese 33%Draw 23%Foligno Calcio 44%Expected goals 0.88 – 1.10
62%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.70 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
2
Value bet: Foligno Calcio to win @ 2.40 – our chance 44% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFoligno Calcio to win ✗44% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.77
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗62% · @1.70
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.61
Recanatese vs Foligno Calcio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 16 September the Serie D Girone F brings Recanatese against Foligno Calcio at Nicola Tubaldi. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT. In the table, Recanatese are 15th, lower half, on 9 points after 11 matches; Foligno Calcio are 4th (among the top four) with 20.
Current form
Recanatese, last 5: DDWWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Santegidiese, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Foligno Calcio, last 5: WWWDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Pietralunga, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Recanatese 0.9 xG, Foligno Calcio 1.1 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Recanatese 33%, draw 23%, Foligno Calcio 44%.
Price worth noting: Foligno Calcio to win @2.40 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 44%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (62%, odds 1.70 – longer than our fair 1.62, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Recanatese 0–1 Foligno Calcio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Recanatese33%fair 3.02 · @2.60
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.20
Foligno Calcio44%fair 2.26 · @2.40
1.98Expected goals
0.88Recanatese xG
1.10Foligno Calcio xG
44%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–115%
0–014%
1–113%
1–012%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: Recanatese 0.9 – 1.1 Foligno Calcio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Foligno Calcio to win✗
44%
2.26
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
–
Draw no bet
Foligno Calcio (draw no bet)✗
57%
1.75
–
Asian handicap
Recanatese +1 (Asian handicap)✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
86%
1.16
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
95%
1.05
–
First team to score
Foligno Calcio to score first
48%
2.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Foligno Calcio / FT Foligno Calcio✗
23%
4.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.61
–
Recent results
Recanatese – last 6
DDWWDW
13 Sep
@ Santegidiese
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Pietralunga
0–0
D
17 May
vs Victor San Marino
4–1
W
3 May
vs Fossombrone
2–0
W
26 Apr
@ Teramo
2–2
D
19 Apr
vs Sora
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Foligno Calcio – last 6
WWWDLD
13 Sep
@ Pietralunga
1–0
W
6 Sep
vs Lanciano FC
2–1
W
3 May
vs Cannara
1–0
W
26 Apr
@ Seravezza
0–0
D
19 Apr
@ San Donato Tavarnelle
0–1
L
2 Apr
@ Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Recanatese and Foligno Calcio.
What is the prediction for Recanatese vs Foligno Calcio?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Recanatese vs Foligno Calcio?
On our numbers Recanatese have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Foligno Calcio 44%.
How many goals will there be in Recanatese vs Foligno Calcio?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Recanatese vs Foligno Calcio?
Our predicted score is Recanatese 0–1 Foligno Calcio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Recanatese vs Foligno Calcio?
Recanatese vs Foligno Calcio (Serie D Girone F) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Nicola Tubaldi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
