Value bet: Fossombrone to win @ 2.88 – our chance 39% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFossombrone to win ✓39% · @2.88
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.89
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.77
Sporting Trestina vs Fossombrone: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Wednesday 16 September: Sporting Trestina v Fossombrone in the Serie D Girone F. In the table, Sporting Trestina are 14th, lower half, on 11 points after 11 matches; Fossombrone are 6th (upper half) with 17.
Current form
Sporting Trestina, last 5: DLLDL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Lanciano FC, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Fossombrone, last 5: LWLLD Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to L'Aquila, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 5. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sporting Trestina 1.4 xG, Fossombrone 1.5 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 48% and GG at 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sporting Trestina 38%, draw 23%, Fossombrone 39%.
Price worth noting: Fossombrone to win @2.88 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (52%, odds 1.60). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sporting Trestina 1–1 Fossombrone. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sporting Trestina38%fair 2.66 · @2.25
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.00
Fossombrone39%fair 2.55 · @2.88
2.91Expected goals
1.44Sporting Trestina xG
1.47Fossombrone xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–28%
2–18%
0–18%
1–08%
2–26%
From our goals model: Sporting Trestina 1.4 – 1.5 Fossombrone expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fossombrone to win✓
39%
2.55
2.88 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
–
Draw no bet
Fossombrone (draw no bet)✓
51%
1.96
–
Asian handicap
Sporting Trestina +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
First team to score
Fossombrone to score first✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fossombrone / FT Fossombrone✗
23%
4.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.77
–
Recent results
Sporting Trestina – last 6
DLLDLD
13 Sep
@ Lanciano FC
0–0
D
6 Sep
vs Vigor Senigallia
2–5
L
29 Jul
@ Gubbio
0–2
L
3 May
@ Robur Siena
4–4
D
26 Apr
vs Prato
0–2
L
19 Apr
@ Sansepolcro
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Fossombrone – last 6
LWLLDL
13 Sep
vs L'Aquila
0–4
L
6 Sep
@ Real Giulianova
2–1
W
1 Aug
@ Cesena
0–3
L
3 May
@ Recanatese
0–2
L
19 Apr
@ Atletico Ascoli
1–1
D
2 Apr
@ Victor San Marino
0–3
L
0.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sporting Trestina and Fossombrone.
What is the prediction for Sporting Trestina vs Fossombrone?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Sporting Trestina vs Fossombrone?
On our numbers Sporting Trestina have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Fossombrone 39%.
How many goals will there be in Sporting Trestina vs Fossombrone?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sporting Trestina vs Fossombrone?
Our predicted score is Sporting Trestina 1–1 Fossombrone, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Sporting Trestina vs Fossombrone?
Sporting Trestina vs Fossombrone (Serie D Girone F) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
