Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.08 – our chance 54% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAncona to win ✓68% · @1.32
Double chanceAncona or draw ✓85% · fair 1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.08
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.72
Ancona vs Sporting Trestina: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Sporting Trestina travel to face Ancona on Sunday 4 October in the Serie D Girone F, with Stadio del Conero the venue – the ball rolls at 14:00 WAT. In the table, Ancona are 3rd, among the top four, on 21 points after 11 matches; Sporting Trestina are 14th (lower half) with 11.
Current form
Ancona, last 5: DDWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Angelana, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Sporting Trestina, last 5: WLLDL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Termoli Calcio, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Ancona, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.7 for Sporting Trestina.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ancona 1.9 xG, Sporting Trestina 0.7 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ancona 68%, draw 18%, Sporting Trestina 15%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.08.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.08 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (69%, odds 1.49 – longer than our fair 1.46, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ancona 1–0 Sporting Trestina. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ancona68%fair 1.48 · @1.32
Draw18%fair 5.65 · @5.51
Sporting Trestina15%fair 6.84 · @9.10
2.57Expected goals
1.89Ancona xG
0.69Sporting Trestina xG
54%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–08%
From our goals model: Ancona 1.9 – 0.7 Sporting Trestina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ancona to win✓
68%
1.48
1.32
Double chance
Ancona or draw✓
85%
1.17
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
2.08 ▲
Draw no bet
Ancona (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Ancona -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.92
1.68
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.49
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.16
First team to score
Ancona to score first✓
68%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Ancona ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ancona / FT Ancona✓
42%
2.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.72
–
Recent results
Ancona – last 6
DDWLWD
27 Sep
@ Angelana
1–1
D
20 Sep
vs L'Aquila
2–2
D
16 Sep
@ Maceratese
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs Montecchio Gallo
0–1
L
6 Sep
@ Notaresco
2–1
W
3 May
vs Notaresco
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Sporting Trestina – last 6
WLLDLL
27 Sep
vs Termoli Calcio
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ Atletico Ascoli
0–1
L
16 Sep
vs Fossombrone
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Lanciano FC
0–0
D
6 Sep
vs Vigor Senigallia
2–5
L
29 Jul
@ Gubbio
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ancona and Sporting Trestina.
What is the prediction for Ancona vs Sporting Trestina?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.49.
Who will win Ancona vs Sporting Trestina?
On our numbers Ancona have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Sporting Trestina 15%.
How many goals will there be in Ancona vs Sporting Trestina?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ancona vs Sporting Trestina?
Our predicted score is Ancona 1–0 Sporting Trestina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Ancona vs Sporting Trestina?
Ancona vs Sporting Trestina (Serie D Girone F) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio del Conero.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
