Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.90 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.90Odds
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Ascoli to win ✗59% · @1.90
Double chanceAtletico Ascoli or draw ✗85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.41
Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atletico Ascoli welcome Fossombrone for a Serie D Girone F fixture on Sunday 4 October (14:00 WAT). In the table, Atletico Ascoli are 10th, lower half, on 15 points after 11 matches; Fossombrone are 6th (upper half) with 17. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Atletico Ascoli, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to Real Giulianova, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Fossombrone, last 5: DLWLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Vigor Senigallia, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Head to head
When they last met (19 Apr 2026) it ended Atletico Ascoli 1–1 Fossombrone.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Ascoli 1.8 xG, Fossombrone 0.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 47%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Ascoli 59%, draw 26%, Fossombrone 15%.
Lower-risk option: Atletico Ascoli or draw (85%) at 1.18.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Atletico Ascoli to win (59%, odds 1.90 – longer than our fair 1.69, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Ascoli 1–0 Fossombrone. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico Ascoli59%fair 1.69 · @1.90
Draw26%fair 3.82 · @3.25
Fossombrone15%fair 6.88 · @3.60
2.58Expected goals
1.79Atletico Ascoli xG
0.80Fossombrone xG
47%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Atletico Ascoli 1.8 – 0.8 Fossombrone expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone?
Our pick is Atletico Ascoli to win with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.90.
Who will win Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone?
On our numbers Atletico Ascoli have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Fossombrone 15%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone?
Our predicted score is Atletico Ascoli 1–0 Fossombrone, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone?
Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone (Serie D Girone F) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
