Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
Picks by market
ResultPaganese to win ✗59% · @1.75
Double chancePaganese or draw ✗82% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · fair 1.97
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.07
Paganese vs Gelbison: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Gelbison travel to face Paganese on Sunday 27 September in the Serie D Girone G, with Stadio Marcello Torre the venue – the ball rolls at 14:00 WAT. In the table, Paganese are 10th, lower half, on 14 points after 11 matches; Gelbison are 16th (in the drop zone) with 11. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Paganese, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 6–1 win over Trastevere, away. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Gelbison, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Sarnese, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Paganese, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Gelbison.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Paganese 1.9 xG, Gelbison 1.0 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Paganese 59%, draw 23%, Gelbison 18%.
Lower-risk option: Paganese or draw (82%) at 1.17.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Paganese to win (59%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.68, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Paganese 1–0 Gelbison. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Paganese59%fair 1.68 · @1.75
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.40
Gelbison18%fair 5.62 · @4.00
2.88Expected goals
1.92Paganese xG
0.96Gelbison xG
51%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–011%
2–010%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Paganese 1.9 – 1.0 Gelbison expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paganese to win✗
59%
1.68
1.75
Double chance
Paganese or draw✗
82%
1.22
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
–
Draw no bet
Paganese (draw no bet)✗
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Gelbison +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
84%
1.20
–
First team to score
Paganese to score first✓
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Paganese ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paganese / FT Paganese✗
38%
2.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.07
–
Recent results
Paganese – last 6
WDWWWL
20 Sep
@ Trastevere
6–1
W
16 Sep
vs Afragolese
0–0
D
12 Sep
@ Latte Dolce
3–2
W
6 Sep
vs Unipomezia
2–1
W
17 May
@ Martina Franca
1–0
W
3 May
@ Città di Fasano
0–6
L
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Gelbison – last 6
LWLDLW
20 Sep
@ Sarnese
1–3
L
16 Sep
vs Budoni
2–1
W
13 Sep
@ Trastevere
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Afragolese
0–0
D
10 May
@ Nissa
0–4
L
3 May
vs Gela
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paganese and Gelbison.
Our pick is Paganese to win with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Paganese vs Gelbison?
On our numbers Paganese have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Gelbison 18%.
How many goals will there be in Paganese vs Gelbison?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paganese vs Gelbison?
Our predicted score is Paganese 1–0 Gelbison, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Paganese vs Gelbison?
Paganese vs Gelbison (Serie D Girone G) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Marcello Torre.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
