Value bet: Paganese to win @ 2.88 – our chance 37% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSarnese to win ✓40% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.90
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.62
Sarnese vs Paganese: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Sarnese welcome Paganese for a Serie D Girone G fixture on Sunday 4 October (14:30 WAT). In the table, Sarnese are 1st, leading the league, on 26 points after 11 matches; Paganese are 10th (lower half) with 14. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Sarnese, last 5: DWWDW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Ossese, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Paganese, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Gelbison, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Head to head
When they last met (22 Feb 2026) it ended Sarnese 1–1 Paganese.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sarnese 1.5 xG, Paganese 1.5 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 52% for three or more goals, 53% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sarnese 40%, draw 22%, Paganese 37%.
Price worth noting: Paganese to win @2.88 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (52%, odds 2.00 – longer than our fair 1.91, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sarnese 2–1 Paganese. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sarnese40%fair 2.47 · @2.20
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.25
Paganese37%fair 2.69 · @2.88
2.98Expected goals
1.53Sarnese xG
1.46Paganese xG
53%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Sarnese 1.5 – 1.5 Paganese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Sarnese vs Paganese?
On our numbers Sarnese have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Paganese 37%.
How many goals will there be in Sarnese vs Paganese?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sarnese vs Paganese?
Our predicted score is Sarnese 2–1 Paganese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Sarnese vs Paganese?
Sarnese vs Paganese (Serie D Girone G) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
