Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDanubio to win ✗41% · @2.36
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.93
Progreso vs Danubio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 29 August the Primera División Apertura brings Progreso against Danubio at Parque Abraham Paladino. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Progreso are 7th, upper half, on 19 points after 13 matches; Danubio are 14th (in the drop zone) with 10.
Current form
Progreso, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to CA River Plate, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Danubio, last 5: WDDLD Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Atenas, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Danubio, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.5 for Progreso.
Head to head
When they last met (30 May 2026) it ended Danubio 1–2 Progreso.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Progreso 1.1 xG, Danubio 1.2 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Progreso 36%, draw 23%, Danubio 41%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (65%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Progreso 1–1 Danubio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Progreso36%fair 2.77 · @2.92
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.10
Danubio41%fair 2.46 · @2.36
2.23Expected goals
1.07Progreso xG
1.16Danubio xG
55%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–012%
0–011%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Progreso 1.1 – 1.2 Danubio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Progreso vs Danubio?
On our numbers Progreso have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Danubio 41%.
How many goals will there be in Progreso vs Danubio?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Progreso vs Danubio?
Our predicted score is Progreso 1–1 Danubio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Progreso vs Danubio?
Progreso vs Danubio (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
