Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗67% · fair 1.49
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗77% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗18% · fair 5.43
Mathare United vs Tusker: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
13:00 WAT, Thursday 29 October: Mathare United v Tusker in the FKF Premier League. In the table, Mathare United are 16th, in the drop zone, on 5 points after 6 matches; Tusker are 11th (lower half) with 6. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Mathare United, last 5: LDLDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to KCB, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Tusker, last 5: DLWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Singida Black Stars, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Tusker, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Mathare United.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mathare United 0.6 xG, Tusker 0.7 xG – a total near 1.4. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 77% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mathare United 35%, draw 25%, Tusker 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (77%, odds 1.36 – longer than our fair 1.30, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mathare United 0–0 Tusker. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mathare United35%fair 2.83 · @2.70
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @2.80
Tusker40%fair 2.51 · @2.60
1.35Expected goals
0.64Mathare United xG
0.71Tusker xG
33%Both score
23%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–026%
0–118%
1–017%
1–112%
0–27%
2–05%
From our goals model: Mathare United 0.6 – 0.7 Tusker expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tusker to win✗
40%
2.51
2.60
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
67%
1.49
–
Draw no bet
Tusker (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.89
–
Asian handicap
Mathare United +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
95%
1.05
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
99%
1.01
–
First team to score
Tusker to score first✗
39%
2.56
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
60%
1.66
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
32%
3.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
18%
5.43
–
Recent results
Mathare United – last 6
LDLDWL
17 Oct
@ KCB
0–1
L
10 Oct
vs APS Bomet
0–0
D
2 Oct
@ Ulinzi Stars
1–2
L
11 Sep
@ Migori Youth
0–0
D
31 May
vs Bandari
1–0
W
23 May
@ Ulinzi Stars
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Tusker – last 6
DLWWWD
25 Oct
@ Singida Black Stars
1–1
D
18 Oct
vs Singida Black Stars
0–1
L
11 Oct
@ Ulinzi Stars
2–0
W
2 Oct
vs Mara Sugar
3–1
W
12 Sep
vs Al Ahli Wad Medani
1–0
W
6 Sep
@ Al Ahli Wad Medani
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mathare United and Tusker.
What is the prediction for Mathare United vs Tusker?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Mathare United vs Tusker?
On our numbers Mathare United have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Tusker 40%.
How many goals will there be in Mathare United vs Tusker?
We expect about 1.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 23% likely and both teams score 33% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mathare United vs Tusker?
Our predicted score is Mathare United 0–0 Tusker, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.4 goals in total.
When is Mathare United vs Tusker?
Mathare United vs Tusker (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Thursday 29 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
