Nairobi United 42%Draw 29%Mara Sugar 29%Expected goals 1.70 – 1.31
70%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.43 · bookmaker 1.52
7/10Rating
1.52Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.27 – our chance 58% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +32%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultNairobi United to win42% · @2.27
Double chanceEither team to win71% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @2.27
GoalsOver 1.5 goals70% · @1.52
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.72
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Mara Sugar travel to face Nairobi United on Saturday 14 November in the FKF Premier League – the ball rolls at 12:00 WAT. In the table, Nairobi United are 15th, lower half, on 5 points after 6 matches; Mara Sugar are 6th (upper half) with 9.
Current form
Nairobi United, last 5: DLDDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with GOR Mahia, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Mara Sugar, last 5: WDWDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Migori Youth, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Mara Sugar, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.8 for Nairobi United.
Head to head
When they last met (1 Apr 2026) it ended Nairobi United 1–1 Mara Sugar.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nairobi United 1.7 xG, Mara Sugar 1.3 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nairobi United 42%, draw 29%, Mara Sugar 29%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 2.27.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.27 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 58%.
Betarazi verdict
The Betarazi pick is Over 1.5 goals (70%, odds 1.52 – longer than our fair 1.43, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nairobi United 1–1 Mara Sugar. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nairobi United42%fair 2.36 · @2.27
Draw29%fair 3.51 · @2.85
Mara Sugar29%fair 3.44 · @3.15
3.00Expected goals
1.70Nairobi United xG
1.31Mara Sugar xG
58%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–27%
2–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: Nairobi United 1.7 – 1.3 Mara Sugar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Nairobi United
Mara Sugar
Attack vs FKF Premier League average
+18%
+6%
Goals conceded vs average
-0%
-5%
Our expected goals here
1.32
0.93
Our own ratings from every FKF Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.52.
Who will win Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
On our numbers Nairobi United have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Mara Sugar 29%.
How many goals will there be in Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
Our predicted score is Nairobi United 1–1 Mara Sugar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
