Value bet: Fgura United to win @ 2.40 – our chance 45% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFgura United to win ✗45% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · fair 1.97
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.90
Fgura United vs Santa Lucía: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 17 October the Challenge League brings Fgura United against Santa Lucía. Kick-off: 18:30 WAT. In the table, Fgura United are 4th, among the top four, on 15 points after 7 matches; Santa Lucía are 13th (lower half) with 6.
Current form
Fgura United, last 5: WDWDL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Victoria Hotspurs, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Santa Lucía, last 5: DDDDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Zurrieq, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Fgura United 1.4 xG, Santa Lucía 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 49%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Fgura United 45%, draw 21%, Santa Lucía 34%.
Price worth noting: Fgura United to win @2.40 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 45%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (50%, odds 2.05 – longer than our fair 1.99, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fgura United 1–1 Santa Lucía. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Fgura United45%fair 2.21 · @2.40
Draw21%fair 4.74 · @3.40
Santa Lucía34%fair 2.97 · @2.40
2.50Expected goals
1.37Fgura United xG
1.13Santa Lucía xG
49%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Fgura United 1.4 – 1.1 Santa Lucía expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fgura United to win✗
45%
2.21
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
–
Draw no bet
Fgura United (draw no bet)
57%
1.74
–
Asian handicap
Santa Lucía +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
2.05
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Fgura United to score first✗
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fgura United / FT Fgura United✗
25%
4.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.90
–
Recent results
Fgura United – last 6
WDWDLL
10 Oct
@ Victoria Hotspurs
3–0
W
19 Sep
vs Sirens
1–1
D
13 Sep
@ Zebbug Rangers
4–0
W
19 Apr
@ Swieqi United
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Sirens
2–3
L
10 Mar
vs Balzan FC
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Santa Lucía – last 6
DDDDDD
11 Oct
vs Zurrieq
1–1
D
18 Sep
@ St. Andrews
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Vittoriosa Stars
0–0
D
6 Apr
@ Mgarr United
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Vittoriosa Stars
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Zebbug Rangers
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fgura United and Santa Lucía.
What is the prediction for Fgura United vs Santa Lucía?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.05.
Who will win Fgura United vs Santa Lucía?
On our numbers Fgura United have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Santa Lucía 34%.
How many goals will there be in Fgura United vs Santa Lucía?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fgura United vs Santa Lucía?
Our predicted score is Fgura United 1–1 Santa Lucía, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Fgura United vs Santa Lucía?
Fgura United vs Santa Lucía (Challenge League) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
