Value bet: Draw @ 4.00 – our chance 48% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +92%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✓48% · @4.00
Double chanceAhal or draw ✓78% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · fair 1.94
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–0 ✗7% · fair 14.32
Ahal vs Paro: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ahal welcome Paro to Changlimithang Stadium for a AFC Challenge League fixture on Saturday 17 October (13:00 WAT).
Current form
Ahal, last 5: LWWLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Altyn Asyr, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Paro, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Thimphu City, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 4.2 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Paro, collecting 3.0 points per game to 1.5 for Ahal.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ahal 1.4 xG, Paro 1.2 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 57%, GG 48%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ahal 30%, draw 48%, Paro 22%.
Lower-risk option: Ahal or draw (78%) at 1.36.
Price worth noting: Draw @4.00 – the bookmaker implies 25%, our ratings say 48%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Ahal or draw (78%, odds 1.36 – longer than our fair 1.29, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ahal 1–1 Paro. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ahal30%fair 3.37 · @2.05
Draw48%fair 2.08 · @4.00
Paro22%fair 4.51 · @2.70
2.66Expected goals
1.41Ahal xG
1.25Paro xG
48%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Ahal 1.4 – 1.2 Paro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
48%
2.08
4.00 ▲
Double chance
Ahal or draw✓
78%
1.29
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
–
Draw no bet
Ahal (draw no bet)
57%
1.75
–
Asian handicap
Paro +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Ahal to score first✓
49%
2.03
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ahal / FT Ahal✗
24%
4.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–0✗
7%
14.32
–
Recent results
Ahal – last 6
LWWLWL
7 Oct
vs Altyn Asyr
0–2
L
19 Sep
@ Aşgabat
4–3
W
12 Sep
vs Nebitci
3–0
W
5 Sep
@ Şagadam
1–2
L
22 Aug
vs Merw
4–0
W
16 Aug
@ Arkadag
1–2
L
2.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Paro – last 6
WWWWWW
8 Oct
@ Thimphu City
2–0
W
3 Oct
vs Bhutan U19
6–0
W
12 Sep
@ Transport United
4–2
W
8 Sep
@ Ugyen Academy
10–0
W
22 Aug
vs RTC
1–0
W
11 Aug
vs Abu Muslim
2–0
W
4.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ahal and Paro.
Our pick is Ahal or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Ahal vs Paro?
On our numbers Ahal have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 48% and Paro 22%.
How many goals will there be in Ahal vs Paro?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ahal vs Paro?
Our predicted score is Ahal 1–1 Paro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Ahal vs Paro?
Ahal vs Paro (AFC Challenge League) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Changlimithang Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Goa1
Regar-TadAZ2
Al Nejmeh1
Istiqlol0