Al Nejmeh 17%Draw 25%Istiqlol 58%Expected goals 0.83 – 1.74
83%
Betarazi pick
Istiqlol or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Istiqlol to win @ 1.90 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultIstiqlol to win ✗58% · @1.90
Double chanceIstiqlol or draw ✗83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.88
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.51
Al Nejmeh vs Istiqlol: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Al Nejmeh welcome Istiqlol to Hisor Central Stadium for a AFC Challenge League fixture on Saturday 17 October (15:00 WAT).
Current form
Al Nejmeh, last 5: DWLWW Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Tadamon Sour, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Istiqlol, last 5: LWWWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Khujand, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 2 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Al Nejmeh 0.8 xG, Istiqlol 1.7 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 47%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Al Nejmeh 17%, draw 25%, Istiqlol 58%.
Lower-risk option: Istiqlol or draw (83%) at 1.22.
Price worth noting: Istiqlol to win @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Istiqlol or draw (83%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Al Nejmeh 0–1 Istiqlol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Al Nejmeh17%fair 5.84 · @3.50
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.40
Istiqlol58%fair 1.72 · @1.90
2.57Expected goals
0.83Al Nejmeh xG
1.74Istiqlol xG
47%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Al Nejmeh 0.8 – 1.7 Istiqlol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Istiqlol to win✗
58%
1.72
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Istiqlol or draw✗
83%
1.21
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
–
Draw no bet
Istiqlol (draw no bet)✗
77%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Al Nejmeh +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
First team to score
Istiqlol to score first✗
62%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Istiqlol / FT Istiqlol✗
37%
2.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.51
–
Recent results
Al Nejmeh – last 6
DWLWWD
12 Oct
vs Tadamon Sour
3–3
D
8 Oct
@ Al Akhaa Al Ahli
2–0
W
2 Aug
vs Al Ansar
1–2
L
28 Jul
vs Al Ahed
2–1
W
24 Jul
vs Jwaaya FC
2–1
W
20 Jul
@ Al Ansar
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Istiqlol – last 6
LWWWLW
15 Sep
@ Khujand
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Khosilot Farkhor
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Parvoz
4–0
W
15 Aug
@ Ravshan
1–0
W
2 Aug
@ Regar-TadAZ
0–1
L
28 Jun
@ Sardor Tursunzoda
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Al Nejmeh and Istiqlol.
Our pick is Istiqlol or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Al Nejmeh vs Istiqlol?
On our numbers Al Nejmeh have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Istiqlol 58%.
How many goals will there be in Al Nejmeh vs Istiqlol?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al Nejmeh vs Istiqlol?
Our predicted score is Al Nejmeh 0–1 Istiqlol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Al Nejmeh vs Istiqlol?
Al Nejmeh vs Istiqlol (AFC Challenge League) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Hisor Central Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Ahal2
Paro2
Goa1
Regar-TadAZ2