Atletico Madrid 36%Draw 20%Bayern München 44%Expected goals 1.66 – 1.87
67%
Betarazi pick
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
2
Value bet: Bayern München to win @ 2.45 – our chance 44% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBayern München to win ✓44% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗66% · @1.40
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗67% · @1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.76
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atletico Madrid welcome Bayern München to Metropolitano Stadium for a UEFA Champions League fixture on Tuesday 3 November (21:00 WAT). In the table, Atletico Madrid are 23rd, lower half, on 4 points after 4 matches; Bayern München are 13th (upper half) with 8.
Current form
Atletico Madrid, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Levante, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Bayern München, last 5: DWWDW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Borussia Dortmund, at home. The attack is flying at 3.7 goals per game.
Momentum favours Atletico Madrid, collecting 2.7 points per game to 2.0 for Bayern München.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Madrid 1.7 xG, Bayern München 1.9 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 67% for three or more goals, 66% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Madrid 36%, draw 20%, Bayern München 44%.
GG/NG: GG (66%) at 1.40.
Price worth noting: Bayern München to win @2.45 – the bookmaker implies 41%, our ratings say 44%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (67%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Madrid 1–2 Bayern München. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico Madrid36%fair 2.77 · @2.55
Draw20%fair 5.13 · @4.00
Bayern München44%fair 2.25 · @2.45
3.52Expected goals
1.66Atletico Madrid xG
1.87Bayern München xG
66%Both score
67%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–19%
1–29%
2–18%
2–27%
0–15%
1–35%
From our goals model: Atletico Madrid 1.7 – 1.9 Bayern München expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bayern München to win✓
44%
2.25
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.24
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
66%
1.51
1.40
Draw no bet
Bayern München (draw no bet)✓
55%
1.81
–
Asian handicap
Atletico Madrid +1 (Asian handicap)✗
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
1.12
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.73
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.30
First team to score
Bayern München to score first✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
36%
2.78
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bayern München / FT Bayern München✗
26%
3.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.76
–
Recent results
Atletico Madrid – last 6
WWDWWW
31 Oct
@ Levante
2–0
W
24 Oct
vs Deportivo La Coruna
1–0
W
20 Oct
@ VfB Stuttgart
1–1
D
17 Oct
@ Espanyol
1–0
W
13 Oct
vs Manchester United
2–0
W
10 Oct
@ Alaves
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Bayern München – last 6
DWWDWD
31 Oct
vs Borussia Dortmund
2–2
D
28 Oct
vs 1. FC Magdeburg
6–1
W
25 Oct
@ SC Freiburg
3–1
W
21 Oct
vs Arsenal
2–2
D
17 Oct
vs RB Leipzig
6–1
W
13 Oct
@ Viking
3–3
D
3.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Madrid and Bayern München.
What is the prediction for Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?
On our numbers Atletico Madrid have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Bayern München 44%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?
Our predicted score is Atletico Madrid 1–2 Bayern München, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Metropolitano Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
