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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Cerrito v Deportivo Maldonado: numbers & prediction

Copa Uruguay · Uruguay

Cerrito

LWDLD
0–2
FT

Deportivo Maldonado

LDWDD
Cerrito 23%Draw 23%Deportivo Maldonado 55% Expected goals 0.81 – 1.46
65%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.44Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultDeportivo Maldonado to win ✓55% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.19

Cerrito vs Deportivo Maldonado: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Wednesday 2 September the Copa Uruguay brings Cerrito against Deportivo Maldonado. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT.

Current form

Cerrito, last 5: LWDLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Sportivo Huracan, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

Deportivo Maldonado, last 5: LDWDD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Juventud, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Cerrito 0.8 xG, Deportivo Maldonado 1.5 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Cerrito 23%, draw 23%, Deportivo Maldonado 55%.
  • GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.00.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 54%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (65%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cerrito 1–1 Deportivo Maldonado. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Cerrito23%fair 4.37 · @3.80
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.10
Deportivo Maldonado55%fair 1.83 · @1.95
2.28Expected goals
0.81Cerrito xG
1.46Deportivo Maldonado xG
54%Both score
40%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–115%
1–112%
0–211%
0–010%
1–29%
1–08%

From our goals model: Cerrito 0.8 – 1.5 Deportivo Maldonado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultDeportivo Maldonado to win ✓55%1.831.95 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77%1.291.28
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗54%1.852.00 ▲
Draw no betDeportivo Maldonado (draw no bet) ✓70%1.42–
Asian handicapCerrito +1 (Asian handicap) ✗64%1.56–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓65%1.531.44
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓60%1.661.55
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80%1.261.18
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓92%1.09–
First team to scoreDeportivo Maldonado to score first ✓58%1.73–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓46%2.19–
Half-time / full-timeHT Deportivo Maldonado / FT Deportivo Maldonado ✗31%3.19–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9%11.19–

Recent results

Cerrito – last 6

LWDLDD
29 Aug@ Sportivo Huracan1–2L
22 Augvs Uruguay Montevideo3–0W
14 Augvs Oriental1–1D
8 Aug@ Colón0–1L
2 Augvs Fenix1–1D
18 Jul@ Rentistas0–0D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Deportivo Maldonado – last 6

LDWDDL
29 Aug@ Juventud0–2L
22 Augvs Penarol0–0D
16 Aug@ Progreso2–0W
10 Augvs Racing Montevideo2–2D
1 Augvs Juventud0–0D
18 Jul@ Progreso0–1L
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Cerrito and Deportivo Maldonado.

Cerrito vs Deportivo Maldonado head-to-head page →

More Copa Uruguay predictions

League hub
FT Central Espanol3 Juventud0 140%2.85X23%3.20237%2.33 0.9–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 82%@1.25 ✓
FT Liverpool Montevideo0 Boston River1 159%1.91X25%3.25216%3.65 1.6–0.7xG 1XLiverpool Montevideo or draw 84%@1.20 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Cerrito vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win Cerrito vs Deportivo Maldonado?

On our numbers Cerrito have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Deportivo Maldonado 55%.

How many goals will there be in Cerrito vs Deportivo Maldonado?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Cerrito vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Our predicted score is Cerrito 1–1 Deportivo Maldonado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Cerrito vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Cerrito vs Deportivo Maldonado (Copa Uruguay) kicks off on Wednesday 2 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.