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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Kitakyushu v Nagoya Grampus: numbers & prediction

J League Cup · Japan · Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu

Kitakyushu

DWLLL
1–3
FT

Nagoya Grampus

LLLLW
Kitakyushu 14%Draw 20%Nagoya Grampus 66% Expected goals 0.09 – 0.91
66%
Betarazi pick

Nagoya Grampus to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.30Odds
NG

Value bet: Not both teams to score @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultNagoya Grampus to win ✓66% · @1.30
Double chanceNagoya Grampus or draw ✓86% · @1.07
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗58% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 1.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗33% · fair 3.00

Kitakyushu vs Nagoya Grampus: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

11:00 WAT, Tuesday 29 September: Kitakyushu v Nagoya Grampus in the J League Cup, played at Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu.

Current form

Kitakyushu, last 5: DWLLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Kagoshima United, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.

Nagoya Grampus, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to FC Tokyo, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Momentum favours Kitakyushu, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.5 for Nagoya Grampus.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Kitakyushu 0.1 xG, Nagoya Grampus 0.9 xG – a total near 1.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 92% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Kitakyushu 14%, draw 20%, Nagoya Grampus 66%.
  • GG/NG: NG (58%) at 1.85.
  • Price worth noting: Not both teams to score @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 58%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Nagoya Grampus to win (66%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Kitakyushu 0–1 Nagoya Grampus. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Kitakyushu14%fair 7.35 · @7.50
Draw20%fair 4.93 · @4.60
Nagoya Grampus66%fair 1.51 · @1.30
1.00Expected goals
0.09Kitakyushu xG
0.91Nagoya Grampus xG
42%Both score
8%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–037%
0–133%
0–215%
0–35%
1–03%
1–13%

From our goals model: Kitakyushu 0.1 – 0.9 Nagoya Grampus expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultNagoya Grampus to win ✓66%1.511.30
Double chanceNagoya Grampus or draw ✓86%1.161.07
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✗58%1.731.85 ▲
Draw no betNagoya Grampus (draw no bet) ✓83%1.21–
Asian handicapKitakyushu +1 (Asian handicap) ✗67%1.49–
Over/under 1.5 goalsUnder 1.5 goals ✗74%1.36–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗92%1.09–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗98%1.02–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓100%1.00–
First team to scoreNagoya Grampus to score first ✓57%1.75–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗65%1.53–
Half-time / full-timeHT Draw / FT Draw ✗38%2.60–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗33%3.00–

Recent results

Kitakyushu – last 6

DWLLLW
26 Sepvs Kagoshima United1–1D
20 Sep@ Sagamihara2–1W
12 Sepvs Gainare Tottori2–4L
9 Sep@ FC Ryukyu0–3L
5 Sep@ Ehime FC2–4L
2 Sepvs Iwaki1–0W
1.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Nagoya Grampus – last 6

LLLLWL
19 Sep@ FC Tokyo0–1L
12 Sep@ V-varen Nagasaki0–2L
6 Sepvs Machida Zelvia1–3L
2 Sep@ Sanfrecce Hiroshima0–3L
29 Augvs Fagiano Okayama2–1W
26 Augvs Gainare Tottori1–3L
0.7Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Kitakyushu and Nagoya Grampus.

Kitakyushu vs Nagoya Grampus head-to-head page →

J League Cup table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Nagoya Grampus6501+615
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima6303+59
3Yokohama FC6204-36
4Vissel Kobe6204-86

More J League Cup predictions

League hub
FT Ehime FC0 FC Tokyo2 115%8.00X17%4.80268%1.25 0.1–0.9xG 2FC Tokyo to win 68%@1.25 ✓
FT Fujieda MYFC1 Cerezo Osaka2 116%4.80X20%3.60263%1.57 0.5–1.5xG 2Cerezo Osaka to win 63%@1.57 ✓
FT Consadole Sapporo1 Fagiano Okayama2 116%4.75X20%3.90264%1.53 0.1–0.9xG 2Fagiano Okayama to win 64%@1.53 ✓
FT Kanazawa0 Shimizu S-pulse2 121%3.70X23%3.30257%1.80 1.1–1.9xG X2Shimizu S-pulse or draw 79%@1.22 ✓
FT Roasso Kumamoto0 Kawasaki Frontale1 111%7.50X20%4.50268%1.30 0.4–1.6xG 2Kawasaki Frontale to win 68%@1.30 ✓
FT Osaka1 Avispa Fukuoka1 AET 1–2 118%5.00X19%3.80262%1.50 1.0–2.0xG 2Avispa Fukuoka to win 62%@1.50 ✗
FT Tochigi City0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima2 110%8.50X20%5.00271%1.25 0.4–1.6xG 2Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win 71%@1.25 ✓
FT Kataller Toyama2 Urawa3 120%3.75X21%3.40258%1.75 1.1–1.9xG X2Urawa or draw 80%@1.22 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Kitakyushu vs Nagoya Grampus?

Our pick is Nagoya Grampus to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.

Who will win Kitakyushu vs Nagoya Grampus?

On our numbers Kitakyushu have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Nagoya Grampus 66%.

How many goals will there be in Kitakyushu vs Nagoya Grampus?

We expect about 1.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 8% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Kitakyushu vs Nagoya Grampus?

Our predicted score is Kitakyushu 0–1 Nagoya Grampus, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.0 goals in total.

When is Kitakyushu vs Nagoya Grampus?

Kitakyushu vs Nagoya Grampus (J League Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.