Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDeportivo Maldonado to win ✓52% · @2.00
Double chanceDeportivo Maldonado or draw ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓10% · fair 10.32
Cerro vs Deportivo Maldonado: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:00 WAT, Thursday 24 September: Cerro v Deportivo Maldonado in the Copa Uruguay.
Current form
Cerro, last 5: LWLWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Penarol, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Deportivo Maldonado, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Juventud, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Deportivo Maldonado, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Cerro.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cerro 1.1 xG, Deportivo Maldonado 1.7 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cerro 23%, draw 24%, Deportivo Maldonado 52%.
Lower-risk option: Deportivo Maldonado or draw (77%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Deportivo Maldonado or draw (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cerro 1–1 Deportivo Maldonado. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cerro23%fair 4.26 · @3.50
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @2.88
Deportivo Maldonado52%fair 1.91 · @2.00
2.75Expected goals
1.05Cerro xG
1.70Deportivo Maldonado xG
58%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
0–111%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
0–06%
From our goals model: Cerro 1.1 – 1.7 Deportivo Maldonado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Maldonado to win✓
52%
1.91
2.00
Double chance
Deportivo Maldonado or draw✓
77%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Deportivo Maldonado (draw no bet)✓
69%
1.45
–
Asian handicap
Cerro +1 (Asian handicap)
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
First team to score
Deportivo Maldonado to score first
58%
1.73
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Maldonado / FT Deportivo Maldonado✗
32%
3.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
10%
10.32
–
Recent results
Cerro – last 6
LWLWDD
19 Sep
vs Penarol
1–2
L
13 Sep
@ Progreso
3–1
W
10 Sep
vs Cerrito
0–2
L
6 Sep
vs Racing Montevideo
1–0
W
1 Sep
@ Wanderers
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ Boston River
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Deportivo Maldonado – last 6
WLWWWL
19 Sep
vs Juventud
2–0
W
13 Sep
@ Defensor Sporting
0–1
L
10 Sep
vs Wanderers
4–1
W
5 Sep
vs Wanderers
2–0
W
2 Sep
@ Cerrito
2–0
W
29 Aug
@ Juventud
0–2
L
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerro and Deportivo Maldonado.
What is the prediction for Cerro vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our pick is Deportivo Maldonado or draw with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Cerro vs Deportivo Maldonado?
On our numbers Cerro have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Deportivo Maldonado 52%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro vs Deportivo Maldonado?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our predicted score is Cerro 1–1 Deportivo Maldonado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Cerro vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Cerro vs Deportivo Maldonado (Copa Uruguay) kicks off on Thursday 24 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Wanderers1
Cerrito3
Danubio1
Penarol1
Atletico Torque3
Atenas3