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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Danubio v Penarol: numbers & prediction

Copa Uruguay · Uruguay

Danubio

DDLLL
1–1
FT

Penarol

WWWDL
Danubio 27%Draw 25%Penarol 49% Expected goals 1.25 – 1.75
55%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Fair pick · fair odds 1.81 · bookmaker 2.00 · Won ✓

4/10Rating
2.00Odds

Picks by market

ResultPenarol to win ✗49% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.49

Danubio vs Penarol: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Danubio welcome Penarol for a Copa Uruguay fixture on Thursday 24 September (19:30 WAT).

Current form

Danubio, last 5: DDLLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Wanderers, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Penarol, last 5: WWWDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Cerro, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.

Momentum favours Penarol, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.8 for Danubio.

Head to head

When they last met (5 Sep 2026) it ended Danubio 0–4 Penarol. The last 2 head-to-heads: Danubio 0 wins, Penarol 1, draws 1. Those games averaged 3.0 goals and saw GG land 1 time.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Danubio 1.2 xG, Penarol 1.8 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 55% for GG.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Danubio 27%, draw 25%, Penarol 49%.
  • GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.00.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (55%, odds 2.00 – longer than our fair 1.81, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Danubio 1–1 Penarol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Danubio27%fair 3.74 · @3.50
Draw25%fair 4.05 · @2.80
Penarol49%fair 2.06 · @2.05
3.00Expected goals
1.25Danubio xG
1.75Penarol xG
55%Both score
58%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%
1–210%
0–19%
0–28%
2–17%
1–06%

From our goals model: Danubio 1.2 – 1.8 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPenarol to win ✗49%2.062.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75%1.331.36
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓55%1.812.00 ▲
Draw no betPenarol (draw no bet)64%1.55–
Asian handicapDanubio +1 (Asian handicap) ✓66%1.53–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80%1.25–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗58%1.73–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓65%1.55–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓82%1.23–
First team to scorePenarol to score first55%1.80–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓39%2.55–
Half-time / full-timeHT Penarol / FT Penarol ✗30%3.33–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10%10.49–

Recent results

Danubio – last 6

DDLLLW
20 Sepvs Wanderers1–1D
13 Sep@ Juventud1–1D
5 Sepvs Penarol0–4L
2 Sep@ Atletico Torque0–2L
29 Aug@ Progreso0–1L
26 Augvs Atenas3–2W
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Penarol – last 6

WWWDLW
19 Sep@ Cerro2–1W
13 Sepvs Albion FC3–1W
5 Sep@ Danubio4–0W
3 Sep@ Atenas2–2D
30 Augvs Club Nacional0–1L
27 Augvs Atletico Torque1–0W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

5 Sep 2026Danubio v Penarol0–4
8 Mar 2026Penarol v Danubio1–1
Danubio vs Penarol head-to-head page →

More Copa Uruguay predictions

League hub
FT Cerro1 Deportivo Maldonado2 123%3.50X24%2.88252%2.00 1.1–1.7xG X2Deportivo Maldonado or draw 77%@1.25 ✓
FT Wanderers1 Cerrito3 163%1.70X23%3.20214%4.50 1.9–0.8xG 1Wanderers to win 63%@1.70 ✗
FT Atletico Torque3 Atenas3 161%1.53X25%3.40214%5.50 2.1–0.9xG 1Atletico Torque to win 61%@1.53 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Danubio vs Penarol?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.

Who will win Danubio vs Penarol?

On our numbers Danubio have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Penarol 49%.

How many goals will there be in Danubio vs Penarol?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Danubio vs Penarol?

Our predicted score is Danubio 1–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is Danubio vs Penarol?

Danubio vs Penarol (Copa Uruguay) kicks off on Thursday 24 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.